College Football · resolved market
Fresno State vs. Boise State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88172c17a0809c8a584493c1d468a7db50453fedc739339e807bbd15c7b0b8e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fresno Stateof Fresno State, Boise State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $187,507
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $187,519
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $187,507 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Boise State | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 131 | 49.6%65 W · 66 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa987…141dbacked Fresno State | 10c | 47,500$4,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42,750 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Fresno State | 10c | 20,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,000 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d6…aa44backed Fresno State | 10c | 10,013$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,011.88 | 127 | 18.9%24 W · 103 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Fresno State | 10c | 5,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,500 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Fresno State | 10c | 5,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,480 | 256 | 29.3%75 W · 181 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Fresno State | 11c | 4,500$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,005 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Fresno State | 11c | 4,457$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,966.65 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Boise State | 34c | 3,349$1,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,132.25 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Fresno State | 13c | 3,174$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,753.84 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb40…a284backed Fresno State | 13c | 2,250$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,962.29 | 345 | 29.9%103 W · 242 L | -21.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Fresno State | 42c | 2,060$864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,196.19 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8245…4f87backed Fresno State | 30c | 2,013$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,413.33 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…e0cbbacked Boise State | 9c | 2,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.18 | 200 | 39.5%79 W · 121 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Fresno State | 12c | 1,679$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,477.66 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb7…082dbacked Fresno State | 15c | 1,333$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,133.33 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Boise State | 1c | 1,222$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 237 | 0.8%2 W · 235 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -98.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd6…19e8backed Fresno State | 15c | 1,204$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,021.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +231%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3850…c4b4backed Fresno State | 12c | 1,200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,056 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ee…dd42backed Fresno State | 12c | 999.99$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$879.99 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Boise State | 75c | 865.53$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.35 | 237 | 51.1%121 W · 116 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Boise State | 72c | 639.71$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.41 | 553 | 50.3%278 W · 275 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Fresno State | 44c | 624.74$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.86 | 405 | 41.2%167 W · 238 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98a3…d61ebacked Fresno State | 28c | 600$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1918…9568backed Fresno State | 58c | 590.48$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.48 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Boise State | 70c | 563.76$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.18 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce91…9c9fbacked Boise State | 28c | 527.59$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e0…b63fbacked Fresno State | 24c | 500$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Fresno State | 27c | 420$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.6 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f79…7ed4backed Fresno State | 12c | 350$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Fresno State | 12c | 304.34$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.82 | 216 | 29.2%63 W · 153 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Fresno State | 12c | 299.97$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.48 | 176 | 34.7%61 W · 115 L | +11.6wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Fresno State | 55c | 265.68$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.39 | 215 | 38.6%83 W · 132 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c0…e1e0backed Fresno State | 65c | 245.2$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.94 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…cfadbacked Fresno State | 17c | 235.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.49 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed Fresno State | 10c | 200$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 169 | 45.6%77 W · 92 L | +9.3wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd5…1306backed Fresno State | 10c | 200$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Fresno State | 10c | 200$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 280 | 32.9%92 W · 188 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Fresno State | 18c | 176$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.97 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Fresno State | 13c | 154$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.98 | 244 | 36.9%90 W · 154 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Fresno State | 13c | 150$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.5 | 184 | 16.8%31 W · 153 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Fresno State | 12c | 143$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.84 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e2c…e2fdbacked Fresno State | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.38 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94d3…cabfbacked Fresno State | 12c | 109.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.78 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Fresno State | 12c | 107.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.4 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa83…537bbacked Fresno State | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Boise State | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8639…fb86backed Fresno State | 16c | 96.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.91 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc47e…8ae4backed Fresno State | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.24 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e86…6bc9backed Fresno State | 16c | 80.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.58 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…1956backed Fresno State | 13c | 80.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.1 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | -10.5wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x36e3…0bd6backed Fresno State | 37c | 75.36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe08e…1d61backed Boise State | 74c | 67.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe21…0c36backed Boise State | 75c | 66.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb82…69adbacked Fresno State | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc20b…ba2fbacked Fresno State | 30c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Boise State | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 160 | 44.4%71 W · 89 L | -15.7wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x63c0…e18fbacked Fresno State | 31c | 41.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.94 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x399c…6191backed Boise State | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed Fresno State | 66c | 24.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd510…0be5backed Fresno State | 77c | 23.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1331…3d82backed Fresno State | 74c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fresno State vs. Boise Statethis page
- Fresno State vs. Boise State: O/U 48.5Under won
- O/U 50.5Under won
- Spread: Boise State (-17.5)Fresno State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.