Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on August 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8841305ce9ef7ed12cbeb6ee1fdb9baa6e4a637c7233039eaebd79100191b0f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,208
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,255
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,208 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 47c | 872.63$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.81 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 60c | 843.21$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.34 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 32c | 762$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.28 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6b…210ebacked Yes | 25c | 674.65$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.62 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71d3…e130backed Yes | 75c | 524.16$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.89 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 23c | 449.17$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.2 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 44c | 441.85$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.51 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 33c | 384.22$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.06 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed Yes | 27c | 270$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.9 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 59c | 222.2$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.12 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c0…65ffbacked Yes | 29c | 217.85$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +26%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 64c | 175$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 23c | 159.36$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 53c | 157.1$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.22 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 23c | 150$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef6…92e4backed Yes | 36c | 137.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc5…b430backed Yes | 16c | 126.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 44c | 125.24$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.26 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa271…4fcabacked Yes | 47c | 117.51$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.25 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe514…e312backed Yes | 20c | 105.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e4…9773backed Yes | 63c | 103.83$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 62c | 103.16$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.08 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…875abacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044e…3158backed Yes | 71c | 97.41$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.69 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 68c | 87$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 27c | 85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 55c | 84.25$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.07 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb24…496bbacked No | 23c | 74.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.24 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.26per pick | 58cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 20c | 72.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72c8…c4b6backed Yes | 63c | 62.09$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.21 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 46c | 60.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21a5…437ebacked Yes | 31c | 59.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 54c | 57.92$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.53 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…6565backed Yes | 20c | 54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764a…83d3backed Yes | 43c | 43.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76d9…dfbcbacked Yes | 72c | 39.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 57c | 39.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 67c | 37.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 77c | 36.17$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 70c | 34.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 64c | 34.37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c1…cb88backed Yes | 52c | 33.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x202e…619cbacked Yes | 35c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 73c | 29.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 74c | 29.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x839e…8a61backed No | 65c | 26.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed No | 56c | 26.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 62c | 26.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 152 | 58.6%89 W · 63 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 60c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 49c | 21.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e4…ea77backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4be9…d313backed Yes | 77c | 19.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 58c | 19.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 69c | 18.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2de6…b08bbacked No | 59c | 17.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 61c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on August 2?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on August 2?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on August 2?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on August 2?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on August 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.