Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on August 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7369f794ce8524bb9177dbef7b0f9daa4b0acd19145c516a9d9211225969193
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,800
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,185
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,800 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 35c | 776.19$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.98 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 48c | 751.51$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.5 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 44c | 720.32$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.41 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed No | 39c | 578.66$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.31 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c0…65ffbacked Yes | 56c | 492.65$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +26%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71d3…e130backed Yes | 67c | 478.43$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.28 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 25c | 463.09$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.05 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…3af4backed Yes | 61c | 350.19$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.9 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed No | 43c | 336.84$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.94 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 24c | 336.71$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.03 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc40…c5bbbacked Yes | 65c | 320$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.6 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 32c | 285.4$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.39 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6b…210ebacked No | 45c | 271.22$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.53 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 68c | 269.62$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.14 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 36c | 251$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.22 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b9…1e0ebacked Yes | 79c | 250.04$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.76 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe514…e312backed Yes | 79c | 227$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.62 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3277…f0b6backed Yes | 61c | 212.62$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.62 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed No | 35c | 199.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.23 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 65c | 185.33$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.86 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 56c | 184.51$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.83 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 63c | 180.17$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.39 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebe…a64dbacked No | 31c | 179.26$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.12 | 103 | 25.2%26 W · 77 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 53c | 157.1$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.73 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 62c | 152.57$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.42 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9053…fb1cbacked No | 19c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b8…b102backed Yes | 62c | 127.89$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.94 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 25c | 124.04$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84e7…73c4backed Yes | 43c | 116.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.52 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 52c | 114.68$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.29 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed No | 32c | 110.35$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.31 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 56c | 110$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.25 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed No | 18c | 109.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed No | 34c | 108.2$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.19 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…fc75backed No | 47c | 105.21$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.32 | 65 | 27.7%18 W · 47 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa196…8ab9backed Yes | 41c | 100.82$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.55 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 45c | 99.25$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 26c | 95.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.17 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 25c | 92.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1276…ec87backed No | 56c | 92.06$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.56 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e4…ea77backed Yes | 62c | 89.02$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.73 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044e…3158backed Yes | 52c | 86.1$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 65c | 86$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.9 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 56c | 85$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 50c | 84.28$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.46 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed Yes | 58c | 83$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 79.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…e203backed Yes | 56c | 75.83$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked No | 64c | 75$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8697…190dbacked No | 51c | 71.81$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 47c | 70.88$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.58 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 67c | 70$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 29c | 70$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.7 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed No | 41c | 69.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 40c | 69$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.39 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 18c | 67.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef6…92e4backed No | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…123abacked No | 43c | 62.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | +6.8wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfb…636dbacked No | 49c | 60.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 112 | 25%28 W · 84 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 40c | 60.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.17 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked No | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4964…4828backed Yes | 71c | 57.58$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x76d9…dfbcbacked Yes | 42c | 56.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.58 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed Yes | 43c | 50.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb24…496bbacked No | 53c | 50.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.26per pick | 58cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 25c | 46.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 29c | 40.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x956d…d9b4backed Yes | 43c | 39.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x839e…8a61backed Yes | 40c | 39.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.72 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa811…e28ebacked Yes | 69c | 38.09$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 42c | 37.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 33c | 36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.12 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 63c | 35.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 60c | 35.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 64c | 32.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x207e…319abacked Yes | 54c | 32.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x800d…e1d0backed Yes | 73c | 31.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 65c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x957f…aee0backed Yes | 73c | 28.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44fe…301dbacked Yes | 75c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +134.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…443bbacked Yes | 43c | 27.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72c8…c4b6backed Yes | 59c | 27.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes | 74c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 64c | 24.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 45c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 66c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 61c | 20.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 59c | 19.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 57c | 19.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 61c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked No | 69c | 18.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on August 2?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on August 2?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on August 2?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on August 2?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on August 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.