NFL · resolved market
Broncos vs. Packers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x884c5de214280e76b56291f82d5aecc193a95b71e893478074950bdb0a9f5b00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Broncosof Broncos, Packers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,150
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,868
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,150 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Broncos | 73c | 5,813$4,237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,576.01 | 251 | 37.5%94 W · 157 L | -18.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…f2f6backed Packers | 28c | 5,543$1,554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,554.27 | 90 | 22.2%20 W · 70 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a14…0762backed Packers | 21c | 2,763$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.94 | 102 | 39.2%40 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Broncos | 72c | 2,654$1,919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735.27 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe93f…1782backed Packers | 26c | 2,266$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84de…b018backed Packers | 28c | 1,717$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.79 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa431…677fbacked Packers | 25c | 1,506$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.45 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.32per pick | 47cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Broncos | 69c | 1,203$830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.89 | 186 | 45.7%85 W · 101 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Broncos | 72c | 1,201$865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.28 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed Broncos | 73c | 1,200$876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe795…bffdbacked Broncos | 78c | 1,006$784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.17 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c7…1b5bbacked Broncos | 70c | 999.99$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 107 | 38.3%41 W · 66 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x530e…a4b2backed Packers | 24c | 748.75$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.6 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Packers | 28c | 600$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Broncos | 70c | 532.78$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.49 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Broncos | 80c | 500.55$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.4 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…e165backed Packers | 31c | 500$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 304 | 46.7%142 W · 162 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cc…4952backed Broncos | 73c | 427.81$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.51 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +5.4wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad67…a975backed Packers | 15c | 425.73$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.44 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0328…d834backed Broncos | 73c | 383$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.91 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…1de4backed Packers | 3c | 355$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 114 | 7.9%9 W · 105 L | -10.2wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x48cc…f76cbacked Packers | 12c | 347.16$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93d0…0c2ebacked Packers | 31c | 330$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.3 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed Broncos | 68c | 305$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.55 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb1…d3e3backed Packers | 17c | 240.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 101 | 25.7%26 W · 75 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…be54backed Packers | 27c | 234$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Broncos | 71c | 222$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.38 | 207 | 36.2%75 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Broncos | 70c | 217.92$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.7 | 228 | 38.6%88 W · 140 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Broncos | 72c | 211$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.01 | 324 | 38%123 W · 201 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…d81fbacked Packers | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b8e…014bbacked Packers | 27c | 181.48$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed Broncos | 73c | 150$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5f…7a25backed Packers | 21c | 145.49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Broncos | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -6.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x036c…d3f6backed Packers | 16c | 134.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Packers | 13c | 118.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 293 | 56%164 W · 129 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ae…d19cbacked Broncos | 70c | 110$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Broncos | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 333 | 28.5%95 W · 238 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb91f…e659backed Packers | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…f10ebacked Packers | 27c | 99.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Broncos | 69c | 86.81$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.91 | 87 | 60.9%53 W · 34 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90db…46cbbacked Broncos | 74c | 86.07$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff9…0524backed Packers | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Packers | 28c | 70.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c6…8e19backed Packers | 27c | 70.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…d38ebacked Broncos | 73c | 70$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa956…2655backed Broncos | 72c | 63.89$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3720…2bc8backed Broncos | 74c | 61.73$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbed…d42dbacked Broncos | 74c | 58.27$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74dc…30e6backed Packers | 28c | 58.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…1f01backed Broncos | 71c | 56.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…6501backed Packers | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46e…5d0abacked Broncos | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1629…a0acbacked Packers | 27c | 49.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0efc…a858backed Broncos | 74c | 43.96$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…40d4backed Broncos | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…c676backed Packers | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 113 | 58.4%66 W · 47 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x364c…2e92backed Packers | 32c | 32.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55a3…eb16backed Packers | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc67d…6ab3backed Broncos | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 71cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x839d…8876backed Broncos | 73c | 17.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6f…1b73backed Broncos | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff63…a2f8backed Broncos | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf13d…b346backed Broncos | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.