MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x885ceabdbe4189c4e459494d48dac8bf8dba13f3b7dde651198f202e16f27352
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $96,494
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $96,582
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,494 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 45c | 80,454$36,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36,204.22 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c1…2988backed Under | 55c | 79,461$43,704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,757.45 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Under | 54c | 3,711$2,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,706.9 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 47c | 1,917$892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$891.59 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 46c | 1,793$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825.06 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 55c | 1,780$979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75d…8fd4backed Under | 55c | 1,443$794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.24 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0800…ceb0backed Over | 46c | 1,214$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.35 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Over | 48c | 1,183$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.68 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked Under | 52c | 1,114$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.88 | 252 | 49.2%124 W · 128 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 46c | 1,059$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.03 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 54c | 985.85$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.49 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 53c | 883$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.01 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 67c | 803.32$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.46 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…1fcabacked Over | 46c | 760.87$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 46c | 634.61$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.73 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 45c | 600$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 48c | 450$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.5 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 52c | 427.72$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.31 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 37c | 416.52$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.99 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 46c | 398.61$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.36 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Under | 48c | 330.61$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.92 | 198 | 55.1%109 W · 89 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 22c | 300.45$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.38 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed Under | 54c | 299.97$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.99 | 267 | 59.2%158 W · 109 L | +17.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 41c | 227.04$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.67 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 53c | 174.45$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.72 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 43c | 172$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.96 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 54c | 125$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6158…81bcbacked Under | 54c | 109.52$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.38 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…79bdbacked Over | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb70…52c0backed Under | 69c | 101.45$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 174 | 62.6%109 W · 65 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.67 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59a8…eb4ebacked Under | 51c | 97.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.42 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa20d…eadebacked Under | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 61c | 64.13$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 71c | 61.47$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d5…53d0backed Over | 46c | 61.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 46c | 59.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Under | 53c | 57.96$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 38c | 56.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 46c | 55.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 37c | 54.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd91…b49abacked Under | 55c | 54.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…3e98backed Over | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 257 | 48.2%124 W · 133 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 60c | 53.69$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ded…3350backed Over | 32c | 53.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 41c | 53.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 45c | 45.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc62…ba48backed Over | 46c | 42.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 54c | 41.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…b9d8backed Under | 55c | 40.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 151 | 38.4%58 W · 93 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2f…3531backed Over | 45c | 40.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…8c5fbacked Under | 71c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 252 | 60.3%152 W · 100 L | +16.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 54c | 38.09$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d6…e952backed Over | 46c | 30.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Under | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d0…028abacked Under | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fee…3d67backed Over | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Over | 62c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 209 | 62.7%131 W · 78 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7701…6ea2backed Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 170 | 51.8%88 W · 82 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego PadresPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 10.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 3.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 4.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego PadresYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.