MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2923bdb81709dd42e82dc1ec5bee111337a5d033669c7e9611c16d2e468309ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Philadelphia Philliesof San Diego Padres, Philadelphia Phillies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,586
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,135
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,586 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Diego Padres | 27c | 2,292$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Philadelphia Phillies | 70c | 1,956$1,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.92 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed San Diego Padres | 30c | 1,419$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.69 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked San Diego Padres | 16c | 939$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.24 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked San Diego Padres | 15c | 613$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.88 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Philadelphia Phillies | 67c | 492.71$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.55 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed San Diego Padres | 17c | 477$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.68 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Philadelphia Phillies | 76c | 394$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.01 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 70c | 317.46$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.24 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Philadelphia Phillies | 78c | 306.29$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.84 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed San Diego Padres | 12c | 282$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02dc…a212backed San Diego Padres | 32c | 250.94$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.95 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Philadelphia Phillies | 58c | 250.48$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.25 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 70c | 196.92$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.08 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked San Diego Padres | 30c | 157$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.1 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Philadelphia Phillies | 70c | 125.36$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.17 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed San Diego Padres | 45c | 118.82$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.47 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 70c | 108.33$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1c…ec86backed San Diego Padres | 19c | 102.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Philadelphia Phillies | 71c | 92.65$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.87 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…8c5fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 74c | 90$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 252 | 60.3%152 W · 100 L | +16.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked San Diego Padres | 21c | 83.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed San Diego Padres | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 75c | 66.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed San Diego Padres | 21c | 64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked San Diego Padres | 30c | 56.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…62babacked San Diego Padres | 30c | 54.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x080a…8b56backed San Diego Padres | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed San Diego Padres | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed San Diego Padres | 35c | 48.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed San Diego Padres | 30c | 41.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed San Diego Padres | 30c | 37.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 71c | 37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf874…def4backed Philadelphia Phillies | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 296 | 56.1%166 W · 130 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 78c | 31.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Philadelphia Phillies | 65c | 28.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Philadelphia Phillies | 76c | 24.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8340…b29bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Philadelphia Phillies | 78c | 13.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…6d07backed Philadelphia Phillies | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 516 | 56.6%292 W · 224 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego PadresPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 10.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 3.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 4.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego PadresYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.