AI · resolved market
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88650b1e9674523ca1676101fed5dec262fece007da211203f2ac04400ea7ed7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,501
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,501 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 10c | 463.69$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.09 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0486…2a2fbacked Yes | 59c | 418.84$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.21 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3071…f76cbacked No | 33c | 302.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked No | 11c | 299.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 17cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x540a…64c9backed Yes | 78c | 235$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.53 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x608d…3933backed Yes | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…c030backed No | 30c | 152.31$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 68c | 133.74$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 18c | 122.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9400…4f20backed No | 42c | 114.38$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.28 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0e…fb07backed No | 34c | 111.22$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…67f5backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 15c | 95.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…d264backed No | 35c | 86.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 65c | 83.8$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 77c | 82.9$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 14c | 82.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…e61cbacked No | 20c | 74.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 16c | 70.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked No | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 76c | 53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 62c | 52.7$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 28c | 41.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…7489backed Yes | 59c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…d8f1backed Yes | 53c | 26.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 66c | 22.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 62cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 79c | 17.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 79c | 13.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.78 | 198 | 34.8%69 W · 129 L | -23.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 6?this page
- Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.