AI · resolved market
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8251f21a80e68ebcc69c67734f37f83bcfd48d2f3b6c71a04ed9c3b97157ed92
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,778
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,778 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd98b…c7ffbacked Yes | 35c | 1,909$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.72 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe70…eefabacked Yes | 23c | 1,753$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 45c | 1,505$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.19 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…2100backed Yes | 19c | 1,397$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 30c | 788.48$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x973b…0a46backed Yes | 18c | 549$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 56c | 546.56$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.15 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb798…7030backed Yes | 10c | 434.8$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.48 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d7e…7278backed Yes | 15c | 395.31$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.93 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0e…fb07backed Yes | 35c | 383.56$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6735…2bbcbacked Yes | 38c | 333.48$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 10c | 331.17$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…abaabacked Yes | 11c | 256.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 77c | 215.77$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.28 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa234…f7ebbacked No | 66c | 200.86$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.39 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 15c | 168.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…c030backed No | 60c | 151.99$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.27 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 146.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes | 16c | 99.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…d264backed Yes | 34c | 87.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1de…6329backed Yes | 18c | 82.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd63a…90a6backed Yes | 23c | 65.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb66…5e13backed Yes | 34c | 58.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x111f…6bb8backed Yes | 36c | 56.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 72c | 40.92$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -7.8wins | -0.23per pick | 55cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…7489backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 66c | 38.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 67 | 83.6%56 W · 11 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x37d2…7847backed No | 62c | 34.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 78c | 31.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked No | 57c | 29.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 69c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 75c | 14.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.66 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 6?this page
- Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 6?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.