World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x886e9098411d45798e450c26be4058a01fa6cd5c549fda9d204964d0d112ad6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,069
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,542
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,069 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 14c | 659.41$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 6c | 633.78$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 372.44$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.51 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 9c | 330.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 6c | 315.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 4c | 306.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 9c | 303.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 8c | 302$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 4c | 249.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 21c | 226.03$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.05 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 72c | 218.91$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.74 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 13c | 215.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 7c | 199.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x859c…6eafbacked Yes | 8c | 152.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 11c | 149.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeba5…3134backed Yes | 13c | 141.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 7c | 140$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec1…e2e3backed Yes | 29c | 137.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…edf6backed Yes | 19c | 116.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 73c | 114.54$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.61 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c1…b2eebacked Yes | 11c | 107.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 71c | 99.12$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.74 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 17c | 96.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 78c | 92.92$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 146 | 56.2%82 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4247…91c4backed Yes | 23c | 80.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05ba…ca40backed Yes | 28c | 66.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 21c | 63.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 27c | 62.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 78c | 57.29$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 78c | 57.24$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 82 | 35.4%29 W · 53 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…dacbbacked Yes | 22c | 47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 74c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96ee…0662backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 72c | 30.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0855…ae26backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 79c | 19.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 79c | 18.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 18.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 80c | 15.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.02 | 51 | 72.5%37 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +5.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C or below on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on July 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.