World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf987da08c9c209fa42e9bc1f25f075fb5cb09928a59241292f099ffcad0d4f09
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,068
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,352
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,068 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbec…808bbacked Yes | 41c | 2,755$1,127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,627.86 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 666.67$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.1 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 62c | 657.86$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.7 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 33c | 569.81$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.21 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 19c | 522.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.11 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 62c | 502.37$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.94 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 463.85$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.26 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 62c | 440$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.89 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 39c | 402.9$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.82 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 22c | 349.83$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.5 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4b…0256backed Yes | 33c | 346.16$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +202.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 73c | 337.03$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.03 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 56c | 301.36$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.84 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes | 35c | 300$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.1 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 28c | 299.98$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.99 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 31c | 281.08$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.63 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 58c | 275.1$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.4 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 35c | 274.47$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.45 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 42c | 267.73$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.17 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 58c | 257.58$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.63 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 37c | 240$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.6 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 238.96$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.17 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked No | 61c | 230.16$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 50cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 38c | 214$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.68 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -15.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 13c | 209.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 104 | 14.4%15 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 58c | 196.75$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.55 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 65c | 184.25$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.8 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 33c | 179.8$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.7 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 62c | 178.14$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.8 | 50 | 72%36 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 56c | 178$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.74 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 47c | 175$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.35 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 170.9$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.07 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed Yes | 42c | 169.74$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.77 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 38c | 166$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.71 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 35c | 165.49$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.97 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed Yes | 51c | 163.84$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.33 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c9…eac8backed No | 62c | 161.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 45c | 157.1$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.1 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed Yes | 31c | 155.37$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.93 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 15c | 141.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed Yes | 72c | 139$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.47 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 46c | 136.49$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.38 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 54c | 135.87$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.37 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 23c | 130$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 31c | 127.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.21 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 66c | 120.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.85 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 35c | 119.77$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.28 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 67c | 117$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.04 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 76c | 111.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.11 | 102 | 43.1%44 W · 58 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a5…9156backed Yes | 45c | 109.97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.87 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 44c | 109.31$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.63 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 63c | 105$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.09 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 35c | 104.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.41 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 52c | 103.45$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 66c | 102.87$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.51 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 60c | 100.28$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.19 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec1…e2e3backed No | 37c | 99.9$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 74c | 94$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.43 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 68c | 92.92$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.02 | 146 | 56.2%82 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 41c | 91.35$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 65c | 86$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.72 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefc6…dde3backed No | 28c | 84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 58c | 82.15$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.64 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 55c | 81.93$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.07 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 81.24$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.68 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…fb4dbacked Yes | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 79c | 78.1$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 69c | 73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 69cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 52c | 71.91$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.31 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 24c | 71.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.28 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x080a…ee79backed Yes | 35c | 71.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +99%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 38c | 70$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 33c | 63.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.26 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 58c | 61.27$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 76c | 60.01$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.61 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -13.1wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 42c | 59.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.64 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 38c | 58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +5.8wins | +0.19per pick | 42cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 37c | 55.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -33%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 65c | 54.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 144 | 67.4%97 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 37c | 54.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.58 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 60c | 53.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 44c | 52.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.77 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 42c | 51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 58c | 50.82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked No | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked Yes | 44c | 49.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 58c | 49.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…4dedbacked Yes | 34c | 49.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf9…878ebacked Yes | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 77c | 45.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.69 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 35c | 45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +5.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 40c | 44.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7d…9cfbbacked No | 62c | 44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 43.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…d09cbacked Yes | 34c | 42.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 38c | 42.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C or below on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.