World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95787eff1f7f9945453d577135a3852718c5ef1bd8595d9027d8c2852d1f0c3a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,078
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,385
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,078 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 139 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 39c | 643.81$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 577.79$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.49 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 475.05$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.63 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 65c | 400.8$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.93 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 10c | 392.96$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 63c | 341.23$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.48 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 62c | 318.44$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.16 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 21c | 303.23$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.84 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 288$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.14 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 78c | 268.02$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.64 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 70c | 267.72$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.58 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 36c | 260.74$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 238.6$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.34 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 64c | 204.66$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.31 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 12c | 200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 104 | 14.4%15 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 76c | 193.42$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.65 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 33c | 190.01$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.8 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 185$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.05 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 60c | 183.04$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.06 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 28c | 180.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 37c | 174.7$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.17 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec1…e2e3backed Yes | 40c | 174.24$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c9…eac8backed Yes | 60c | 167.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 35c | 165$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 65c | 159.96$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.99 | 132 | 68.9%91 W · 41 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 34c | 150.09$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.03 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5158…4b30backed Yes | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 66c | 140.13$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.72 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 38c | 129$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.42 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 38c | 128.18$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.88 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 57c | 124.75$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.94 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 122.32$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.48 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa05f…0003backed Yes | 33c | 121.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.38 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +5.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 24c | 119.68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 80 | 25%20 W · 60 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 108.07$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.47 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 60c | 108.03$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.73 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 71c | 106.52$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a5…9156backed Yes | 35c | 102.39$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 19c | 102.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dd…b525backed Yes | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +1,615.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 39c | 94.16$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.62 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 63c | 92.92$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.97 | 146 | 56.2%82 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 65c | 90.13$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.65 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 70c | 89.11$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.71 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 38c | 88.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 61c | 88$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 30c | 84.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 71c | 82.8$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 36c | 78.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 44c | 77.27$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 36c | 77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 44c | 76.7$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefc6…dde3backed No | 67c | 76.52$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 35c | 76.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 73.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 34c | 73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 40c | 69.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd503…325fbacked Yes | 35c | 69.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 32c | 69.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 67.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 62c | 66$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 65$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22b6…a962backed Yes | 17c | 64.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 27c | 59.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb22c…8aadbacked No | 65c | 58$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc20…c5dbbacked No | 65c | 56.07$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 56c | 55.95$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 59c | 55.01$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c1…b2eebacked Yes | 35c | 55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 61c | 54.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 144 | 67.4%97 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 34c | 54.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 44c | 53.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 53.6$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f4…d093backed Yes | 42c | 52.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 41c | 50.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 82 | 35.4%29 W · 53 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 62c | 48.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 71c | 48.66$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 26 | 80.8%21 W · 5 L | +5.5wins | +0.21per pick | 60cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 37c | 48.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc6…22a6backed Yes | 40c | 48.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +31%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 42c | 47.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 63c | 46.34$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 64c | 43.87$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 37c | 43.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 41c | 43.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed Yes | 30c | 42.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…7890backed Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 37c | 40.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 29c | 39.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 73c | 39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C or below on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on July 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.