MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88a440288df9a42be045e0b541f095b5dbc498c2c92d421e016eb24828d4745e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,269
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,267
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,269 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 41c | 2,292$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$939.63 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 59c | 1,949$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.27 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 52c | 974.07$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.82 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1f…9136backed Under | 46c | 872.63$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.41 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 54c | 737.85$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.36 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf3…aa3abacked Under | 55c | 718.27$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 39c | 404.84$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.89 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Over | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed Over | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 268 | 60.4%162 W · 106 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf58c…0b79backed Over | 61c | 245.9$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.9 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 56c | 233.69$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.07 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 40c | 216.15$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.46 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…4ee0backed Over | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +5.1wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba92…2196backed Under | 49c | 155.46$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.82 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Under | 26c | 132$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 43c | 124.92$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.72 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 11c | 100.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 40c | 98.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.57 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 56c | 78$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.01 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 72c | 68.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 41c | 52.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3255…ffb9backed Over | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 180 | 53.9%97 W · 83 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce8b…738abacked Under | 34c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cca…efe9backed Over | 56c | 26.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 60c | 20.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh PiratesLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 12.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Will the game go to extra innings?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh PiratesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.