MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4520c427ea2762eefa5dda17be918c7776c94bcd32739dd438b0e57381e60d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,638
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,706
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,638 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 68c | 6,484$4,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,085.33 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 30c | 5,149$1,528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,528.26 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3740…a935backed Under | 28c | 999.99$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 69c | 801.42$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.76 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 59c | 518.97$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.49 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 21c | 303.37$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.71 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 29c | 296.74$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.05 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Over | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.12 | 383 | 53.8%206 W · 177 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 66c | 294.12$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.12 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 79c | 271.76$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Under | 71c | 250$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.5 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 49c | 213.3$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.89 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 20c | 207.11$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.75 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Under | 23c | 140.66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.71 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 74c | 136.73$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.63 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 30c | 103.37$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951a…8c9dbacked Over | 42c | 94.3$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.3 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf306…4cf8backed Over | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 42c | 44.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 27c | 39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 29c | 38.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe10…4800backed Under | 79c | 35.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a41…0123backed Under | 51c | 29.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 44c | 25.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce8b…738abacked Over | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x60d2…4268backed Under | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh PiratesLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 12.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Will the game go to extra innings?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh PiratesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.