TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

1st 5 Innings Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Pittsburgh Piratesof Los Angeles Dodgers, Pittsburgh Pirates
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,209
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,206

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,209 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6d3c…d294backed Los Angeles Dodgers46c1,560$718 inLost-$718.195,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc376…6850backed Pittsburgh Pirates54c1,158$626 inWon+$532.37757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Pittsburgh Pirates56c1,005$563 inWon+$442.29,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5825…4ffbbacked Los Angeles Dodgers44c755$330 inLost-$329.753444.1%15 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51f7…ae1fbacked Los Angeles Dodgers45c380.57$170 inLost-$169.953948.7%19 W · 20 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ea…66dbbacked Pittsburgh Pirates54c239.57$129 inWon+$110.2966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+23.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9ea…b781backed Los Angeles Dodgers45c190.79$86 inLost-$85.8656851.4%292 W · 276 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x463e…fa8ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates55c158.96$87 inWon+$71.531464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Los Angeles Dodgers47c153.98$72 inLost-$72.372,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Pittsburgh Pirates56c150.02$83 inWon+$66.7143954.7%240 W · 199 L+30.6wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Pittsburgh Pirates53c135.11$72 inWon+$63.567453%357 W · 317 L+28.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Los Angeles Dodgers42c99.24$41 inLost-$41.3940341.4%167 W · 236 L-20.0wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e05…58aabacked Pittsburgh Pirates54c92.59$50 inWon+$42.592100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7a2…ae70backed Pittsburgh Pirates56c84.96$48 inWon+$37.3811656.9%66 W · 50 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+17.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc5a9…3a77backed Pittsburgh Pirates56c50.68$28 inWon+$22.36344.4%28 W · 35 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf5f…2184backed Pittsburgh Pirates55c50$28 inWon+$22.52161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.