TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

1st 5 Innings Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Pittsburgh Piratesof Los Angeles Dodgers, Pittsburgh Pirates
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,249
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,251

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,249 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6d3c…d294backed Los Angeles Dodgers37c1,060$387 inLost-$387.185,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Pittsburgh Pirates67c761.22$510 inWon+$251.259,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51f7…ae1fbacked Los Angeles Dodgers33c505$167 inLost-$166.653948.7%19 W · 20 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38c5…dea8backed Pittsburgh Pirates64c462.84$296 inWon+$166.62742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5825…4ffbbacked Los Angeles Dodgers33c250$83 inLost-$82.53444.1%15 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Pittsburgh Pirates63c158.73$100 inWon+$58.7367453%357 W · 317 L+28.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Los Angeles Dodgers37c150.01$56 inLost-$55.6843954.7%240 W · 199 L+30.6wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Los Angeles Dodgers36c133.49$48 inLost-$48.062,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e05…58aabacked Pittsburgh Pirates63c111.9$70 inWon+$41.42100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x75db…a8ffbacked Pittsburgh Pirates63c104.76$66 inWon+$38.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2995…f5bbbacked Pittsburgh Pirates64c103.13$66 inWon+$37.13250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x463e…fa8ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates63c88.11$56 inWon+$32.61464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0645…c08ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates63c53.03$33 inWon+$19.626744.8%30 W · 37 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa2f3…8c9bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates63c51.41$32 inWon+$19.024100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaf5f…2184backed Pittsburgh Pirates64c50$32 inWon+$182161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x55af…8407backed Pittsburgh Pirates64c35.58$23 inWon+$12.812857.1%16 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9422…f273backed Pittsburgh Pirates65c30.76$20 inWon+$10.772653.8%14 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc376…6850backed Pittsburgh Pirates64c20$13 inWon+$7.2757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc7b…8fb6backed Pittsburgh Pirates63c19$12 inWon+$7.03333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick58cpaid-47.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e31…a5efbacked Pittsburgh Pirates64c18.75$12 inWon+$6.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.