MLB · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76e946254756c4419fa9cdaf7ffbd26c1e487cba0912face02d9853473f94c88
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pittsburgh Piratesof Los Angeles Dodgers, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,844
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,507
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,844 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 53c | 15,277$8,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,119.44 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…c80cbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 59c | 10,233$6,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,195.68 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 41c | 10,161$4,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,166.1 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 8,456$3,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,418.83 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 60c | 8,000$4,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,200 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 28c | 4,131$1,137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,993.94 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 44c | 1,406$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.51 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 45c | 1,188$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.28 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 60c | 905.95$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.5 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 32c | 613.29$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.04 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 40c | 402$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.8 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3622…083dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 41c | 390.94$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.77 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 34c | 330.88$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.44 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 66c | 228.08$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.71 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca2…03cfbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 208 | 43.3%90 W · 118 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3f…1365backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 151 | 59.6%90 W · 61 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…2751backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 57c | 155.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.69 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 39c | 131.64$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.34 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.5 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 39c | 99.84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.14 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 70c | 92.9$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.25 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 56c | 78$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb6…67edbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 40c | 57.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 44c | 49.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 58c | 48.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7885…1173backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 28c | 48.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.74 | 133 | 57.9%77 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 34c | 44.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.51 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4efe…d987backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.36per pick | 51cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf306…4cf8backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 39c | 34.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 51c | 20.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4270…6168backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 74c | 20.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 57c | 19.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 59c | 19.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 64c | 17.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh PiratesLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 12.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Will the game go to extra innings?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh PiratesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.