TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Pittsburgh Piratesof Los Angeles Dodgers, Pittsburgh Pirates
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,119
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,908

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,119 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x26f8…3452backed Los Angeles Dodgers62c2,563$1,589 inLost-$1,589.0611548.7%56 W · 59 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates55c1,147$627 inWon+$520.0511,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Los Angeles Dodgers51c523.24$267 inLost-$266.851,91253%1,014 W · 898 L+42.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ad5…62ffbacked Los Angeles Dodgers36c399.99$143 inLost-$143.041,14731.6%362 W · 785 L-97.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-27.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Los Angeles Dodgers47c390.35$182 inLost-$182.52,14750.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L+27.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Pittsburgh Pirates55c288.54$159 inWon+$129.866,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xca2b…3489backed Los Angeles Dodgers24c213$51 inLost-$51.1229242.5%124 W · 168 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick43cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Pittsburgh Pirates55c127.11$70 inWon+$56.822,58361.4%1,587 W · 996 L+70.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Los Angeles Dodgers40c102.64$41 inLost-$41.068,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Pittsburgh Pirates56c88.27$49 inWon+$38.841,73349%849 W · 884 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Pittsburgh Pirates43c53.87$23 inWon+$30.9112,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Pittsburgh Pirates75c44$33 inWon+$111,28449.5%635 W · 649 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0b4…9dc2backed Los Angeles Dodgers25c44$11 inLost-$119147.3%43 W · 48 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Los Angeles Dodgers34c43.71$15 inLost-$14.862,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfb6…67edbacked Pittsburgh Pirates37c39.99$15 inWon+$25.22240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Los Angeles Dodgers44c38.59$17 inLost-$16.846,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.