Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 30°C on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88c0512e02c3cbc184cc67206432354e7c2a9fd59f9b3e7986685a0f2c28ee37
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,091
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,396
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,091 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 3c | 549.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 9c | 413.28$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 37c | 405.41$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 37c | 245.18$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.63 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 233.33$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.33 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa110…dc18backed Yes | 38c | 208.19$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x371b…8786backed Yes | 34c | 166.76$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 124.38$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.13 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa982…6fd1backed No | 69c | 118.02$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 79c | 109.98$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 74c | 107.87$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 104.65$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.28 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 101.2$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed Yes | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.95 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 20c | 87.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 75c | 74.73$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 29c | 69.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 65c | 69.33$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.33 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 22c | 64.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 33c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 31c | 49.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 38c | 47.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e4…7718backed No | 62c | 45.3$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 30c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 44.54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55ca…498fbacked Yes | 34c | 41.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +7.0wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 35c | 38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 63c | 37.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked Yes | 29c | 36.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 157 | 22.9%36 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 62c | 35.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 64c | 32.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 71c | 32.34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 64c | 30.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e0…e538backed Yes | 39c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 63c | 26.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 74c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 74c | 21.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x756d…4b84backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0082…c023backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 69c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 64c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 63c | 18.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 64c | 18.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 30°C on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 31°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.