TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on August 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,005
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,548

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,005 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3189…562dbacked Yes3c2,055$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.81850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-16%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf56c…ad84backed Yes3c649.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.755073.4%17 W · 490 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9506…1c4fbacked No65c526.2$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.3381558.5%477 W · 338 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fe2…eb81backed Yes22c455.35$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002560%15 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+19.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe605…914fbacked Yes36c414.24$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.5411438.6%44 W · 70 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2600…1cbebacked Yes35c383.47$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.171127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf742…400ebacked Yes5c381.13$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7611614.7%17 W · 99 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes22c266.18$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.562,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes26c263.93$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.334,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa982…6fd1backed Yes24c262.92$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.123540%14 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa590…87d4backed Yes9c260$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2450%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x371b…8786backed Yes23c235.89$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.825540%22 W · 33 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x58a3…c5cebacked Yes27c187.73$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.277748.1%37 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No80c182.06$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.5779947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes34c179.13$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.385,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes30c169.55$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.791,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes28c167.95$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.6710,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No79c166.37$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.734,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ec3…a081backed Yes25c154$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.8517524.6%43 W · 132 L+7.7wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+17.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No77c152.26$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.632,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc2bc…1485backed Yes34c149.99$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516346%29 W · 34 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes24c139.26$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.151,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x017c…f8efbacked Yes39c127.48$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.57642.1%32 W · 44 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ae3…372abacked Yes33c126.03$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.5914060%84 W · 56 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No66c122.67$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes17c118.33$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.756627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No77c110$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.355,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No69c109.98$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.71,31656.2%740 W · 576 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked Yes34c108$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.7254253%287 W · 255 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b6e…5848backed No65c105.72$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.3524141.1%99 W · 142 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes11c100.01$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.621,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x012f…400dbacked Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3034831%108 W · 240 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6396…7183backed Yes35c99.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.610827.8%30 W · 78 L-9.5wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-31.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed No64c99.65$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.82,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No73c98.79$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.819,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No68c90.78$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.084,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1546…778bbacked Yes43c90$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.335429.9%106 W · 248 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No71c89.64$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.7312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No68c85.66$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.192,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd37…9135backed Yes26c79.68$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3717940.8%73 W · 106 L+29.0wins+0.16per pick25cpaid+113.7%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x268f…bbd7backed Yes35c77.49$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.129938.4%38 W · 61 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No74c73.29$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.352,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes27c73.06$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.925,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa990…dc90backed No65c70.49$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.6759144.5%263 W · 328 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30d8…29ecbacked Yes27c70.48$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.378636%31 W · 55 L+10.3wins+0.12per pick24cpaid+40.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf2a3…902dbacked Yes53c69.29$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.992441.7%10 W · 14 L-3.4wins-0.14per pick56cpaid-24.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No70c68.66$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.914,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bed…bbf5backed Yes27c67.05$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0411856.8%67 W · 51 L+12.1wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+31.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd322…8503backed Yes29c65.87$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.88655.8%48 W · 38 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xff1f…e2e6backed No78c65$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.3514254.2%77 W · 65 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x066e…d3ddbacked Yes18c62.32$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.22250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick16cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x559c…aeedbacked Yes35c62.28$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.81030%3 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-29.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No75c60.59$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.042,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8dcd…a764backed No77c60.36$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.632100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fba…3adcbacked Yes26c60$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.38641.9%36 W · 50 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b18…f34cbacked Yes27c56.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.36560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+25.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No70c53.18$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.026,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbd71…1281backed Yes27c52.61$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2353951.9%280 W · 259 L+54.4wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked No66c52.44$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.7158422.8%133 W · 451 L-26.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-52.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3990…06bebacked Yes35c50.27$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5729927.8%83 W · 216 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No74c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.084,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a83…497dbacked Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.834935.2%123 W · 226 L+1.7wins0.00per pick35cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6da…9270backed Yes41c48.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.28per pick35cpaid+94%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed Yes39c46.4$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2989951.6%464 W · 435 L-40.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7320…0a3fbacked Yes28c40.67$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4516148.4%78 W · 83 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9006…9fb8backed Yes26c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3527037.4%101 W · 169 L+12.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x61f7…f8debacked Yes31c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.428742.5%122 W · 165 L+24.3wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+24.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8867…7683backed Yes29c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.67240.3%29 W · 43 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+19.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd5fb…b01bbacked Yes33c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.210434.6%36 W · 68 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No65c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No71c37.6$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.832,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe2d…da35backed No68c37.55$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.8727169%187 W · 84 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No43c36.98$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.991,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes59c34.1$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9728546.3%132 W · 153 L-17.3wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-11.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5c8d…4662backed No76c33.19$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8dd…5c14backed Yes34c32.68$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.111625%4 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-30.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6240…54c0backed No79c32$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.582157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No73c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…9288backed No70c28.34$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.617262.2%107 W · 65 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No77c28$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.364,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No80c27.43$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.562,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b18…efaebacked No75c21.41$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.424957.1%28 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No67c21.39$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.9912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xca28…ceb2backed No67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.613637.5%51 W · 85 L-0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8958…656dbacked No67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.555967.8%40 W · 19 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xba6d…9128backed No66c19.92$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.778251.2%42 W · 40 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-15.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x17e4…7718backed No70c19.47$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.844367.4%29 W · 14 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xee25…63ccbacked No65c18.74$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.5620056.5%113 W · 87 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No75c17.1$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.245,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0957…5db6backed No71c17.09$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.961968.4%13 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick72cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x803a…219ebacked No64c16.35$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.9626265.6%172 W · 90 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x12f5…5ac4backed No70c16.23$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.8711240.2%45 W · 67 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.