TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$28,455
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$33,581

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,455 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes38c1,111$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$684.42,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes12c1,020$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$895.2710,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa982…6fd1backed Yes26c639.85$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4713540%14 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No16c592.7$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.762,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf742…400ebacked Yes11c556.1$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.5511614.7%17 W · 99 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe605…914fbacked Yes25c422.48$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.9411438.6%44 W · 70 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a03…84afbacked Yes47c418.56$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.7336930.6%113 W · 256 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x58a3…c5cebacked No35c410.68$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.937748.1%37 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No11c393.28$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.971,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x79ad…4eedbacked No62c389.66$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.856845.6%31 W · 37 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-18.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No54c372.56$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.1638243.2%165 W · 217 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes43c309.99$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.2938633.4%129 W · 257 L-0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71d0…b73abacked Yes76c309.42$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.0610757.9%62 W · 45 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfb9…9c56backed Yes46c233.59$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.76157.4%35 W · 26 L+9.3wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+42.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No15c232.17$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.697,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes37c228.33$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.535,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No78c219.52$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.154,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked No36c211.91$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.2358422.8%133 W · 451 L-26.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-52.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes8c174$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.081,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No26c164.66$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.036,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9006…9fb8backed Yes55c155.31$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.7527037.4%101 W · 169 L+12.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed Yes42c152$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.661,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No40c148.77$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.3177151%393 W · 378 L+23.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b7c…f811backed Yes44c147.03$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.328247.6%39 W · 43 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x90ae…2475backed No64c143.06$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.5657150.4%288 W · 283 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6053…6af8backed Yes68c139.39$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.07785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick67cpaid+26.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2349…1646backed No22c125.19$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7748261.8%298 W · 184 L+43.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+12.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No32c123.21$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.982,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes41c122.97$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.9764446.4%299 W · 345 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No66c118.85$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.731,31656.2%740 W · 576 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No42c114.44$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.551,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No41c114.38$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.022,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes16c111$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.2457044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No38c110$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.34,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes17c105.82$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.41,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed Yes22c100$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7875546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No65c100$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes39c100$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6137150.4%187 W · 184 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6396…7183backed Yes79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2110827.8%30 W · 78 L-9.5wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-31.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x012f…400dbacked Yes22c100$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7834831%108 W · 240 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No77c96.69$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.524,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x017c…f8efbacked Yes42c95$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.157642.1%32 W · 44 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x633e…d305backed Yes26c91.54$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.744738.3%18 W · 29 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No39c90$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.754,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbaa…0ad7backed No57c88.73$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.830%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes22c88.43$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.0512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No25c85.16$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.292,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d3f…fde2backed Yes71c83.65$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.995054%27 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No79c83.28$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.169,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No31c82.47$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.572,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7353…b6c5backed Yes25c73$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.7518347%86 W · 97 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No21c72$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1215236.2%55 W · 97 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No69c70.73$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.694,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No30c69.98$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2198236.7%360 W · 622 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xff1f…e2e6backed No24c64$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2314254.2%77 W · 65 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No44c63.97$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.111,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No39c63.61$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.042,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes70c61.24$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.5624466.8%163 W · 81 L+20.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x582c…3266backed Yes50c60$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303452.9%18 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No39c57.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.712,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No34c57.93$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.742,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No33c53.43$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.62,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ae3…372abacked No59c53.13$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3514060%84 W · 56 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No37c53.01$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.82,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.924,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5203…b975backed Yes29c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.5218641.4%77 W · 109 L-0.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No61c50$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.53,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked No39c49.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3456627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3b6…0d2bbacked No73c49.99$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4914372%103 W · 40 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick70cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No27c47.74$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.922,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17ea…7838backed Yes21c47.25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.177057.1%40 W · 30 L+8.1wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+37.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No27c42.92$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.621,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes51c41.88$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.482,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7374…38ffbacked Yes77c40.29$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.375969.5%41 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fa1…1f74backed Yes27c40$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.31546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+13.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed Yes28c40$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2989951.6%464 W · 435 L-40.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No77c40$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.64,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No52c39.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.479947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa2bf…95d3backed No75c36.76$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.671346.2%6 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.19per pick65cpaid-36.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No33c36.42$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.842,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1461…b97ebacked No53c36.31$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2328035.4%99 W · 181 L-69.3wins-0.25per pick60cpaid-45.3%equal weight25-0.23 edge/pick
0xd322…8503backed No54c35.11$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.088655.8%48 W · 38 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x30d8…29ecbacked Yes32c35$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.958636%31 W · 55 L+10.3wins+0.12per pick24cpaid+40.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x65f9…1b7cbacked Yes53c32.76$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.377855.1%43 W · 35 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0ab…d374backed Yes36c31.04$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.01825%2 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-41.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No75c30$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.43,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9cf…b443backed Yes49c28.24$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.536728.4%19 W · 48 L-8.8wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-40.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd5ee…e90bbacked No74c27.02$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.993565.7%23 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick72cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b18…efaebacked No53c21.42$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.354957.1%28 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes79c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.21,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d60…a7a5backed No80c20$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.942555.1%234 W · 191 L+13.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No59c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.840162.6%251 W · 150 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No74c15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.142,06774.6%1,542 W · 525 L+23.8wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf695…24fabacked Yes77c14$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.