MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88cd4a2dee53ad0620ec3d8d909c32b7b5479e2d7cfb581a65281b80bd6cb410
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,274
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,416
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,274 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 50c | 5,412$2,717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,694.72 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5252…ca8cbacked Over | 51c | 4,902$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 53c | 2,413$1,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,133.54 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 47c | 1,874$881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880.92 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 25c | 1,101$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.81 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 71c | 1,074$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.76 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 47c | 636.71$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 475 | 45.9%218 W · 257 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 63c | 369.44$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.44 | 299 | 50.5%151 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 38c | 323.38$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.29 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…f012backed Under | 63c | 296.48$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.75 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b74…0482backed Over | 38c | 278.77$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.94 | 522 | 28%146 W · 376 L | -57.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 48c | 259.89$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.96 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 48c | 236$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.96 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 40c | 214.83$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.69 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfd4…91f7backed Over | 40c | 214.35$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.69 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 62c | 127$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.26 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 66c | 63.49$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 65c | 54.51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 64c | 53.2$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2022…37d9backed Over | 34c | 52.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2126…aeebbacked Under | 61c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Over | 33c | 42.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1882…1af4backed Over | 48c | 41.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Over | 29c | 37.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf67d…2de1backed Under | 53c | 35.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x115e…5019backed Over | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 5.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia PhilliesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.