MLB · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b2aa355daa0bf8af34b66d8e86b1221c85abd1ff97900dba7d3a01653dd8da5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pittsburgh Piratesof Philadelphia Phillies, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,890
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,203
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,890 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Philadelphia Phillies | 16c | 5,347$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.99 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 63c | 3,857$2,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,418.04 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 37c | 3,577$1,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,317.62 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 39c | 2,652$1,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,034.2 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Philadelphia Phillies | 23c | 2,195$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.54 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 1,488$907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.41 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 1,206$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.26 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 1,112$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.22 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 62c | 1,111$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.18 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 62c | 1,024$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.55 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 62c | 808.26$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.14 | 360 | 48.6%175 W · 185 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a1…ceb5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 713.03$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.95 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 500$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 448.37$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.86 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 72c | 395$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.08 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 264.46$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.12 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 250.9$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.34 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b74…0482backed Philadelphia Phillies | 37c | 224.16$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.81 | 522 | 28%146 W · 376 L | -57.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 219.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.88 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Philadelphia Phillies | 11c | 209.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 187$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.03 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Philadelphia Phillies | 39c | 178.27$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.53 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Philadelphia Phillies | 39c | 172$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.08 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 62c | 167$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffc4…b347backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 80c | 166$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 72 | 68.1%49 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 62c | 158.71$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.31 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 62c | 158.69$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.3 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 63c | 150.36$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.62 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Philadelphia Phillies | 39c | 130.75$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.72 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…faeabacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 62c | 129.03$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.03 | 404 | 49.3%199 W · 205 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 63c | 111.11$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.11 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e2…0f82backed Philadelphia Phillies | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 137 | 43.8%60 W · 77 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0c…b898backed Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 67c | 98.74$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.48 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 62c | 84.93$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.27 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 62c | 79.34$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 78.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.61 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 77.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 65.68$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0a…75acbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 465 | 46%214 W · 251 L | -17.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 60c | 65.17$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.17 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 506 | 47%238 W · 268 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Philadelphia Phillies | 37c | 59.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 39c | 59.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 59$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.81 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5410…dcc7backed Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 58.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 121 | 28.1%34 W · 87 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Philadelphia Phillies | 40c | 56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 40c | 54.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 47c | 50.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.02 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…d18fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 453 | 48.6%220 W · 233 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 62c | 46.61$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 395 | 53.7%212 W · 183 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 33c | 39.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 244 | 48.8%119 W · 125 L | -14.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1882…1af4backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 60c | 37.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3e…637cbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 36.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | +6.3wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Philadelphia Phillies | 40c | 34.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 312 | 50%156 W · 156 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c77…8d9cbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 40c | 31.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…1e88backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 62c | 29.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 544 | 41.2%224 W · 320 L | -22.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6f…fe71backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -9.0wins | -0.26per pick | 49cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 67c | 20.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3d…cfbfbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 63c | 18.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c5…f991backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 63c | 17.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 62c | 16.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…157cbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 62c | 16.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 5.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia PhilliesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.