MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b309ce2382c555663cab487f21084bb48cfc738156c6dc1239fb86f8b7e721b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,381
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,841
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,381 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc444…20dabacked Yes | 57c | 1,218$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 43c | 1,004$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.37 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf37c…3c74backed No | 44c | 449.55$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.55 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 55c | 246.46$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.45 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 43c | 113.48$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.13 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18d8…400bbacked Yes | 52c | 84.36$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.06 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed No | 42c | 70.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.03 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02e0…3741backed Yes | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 163 | 49.1%80 W · 83 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 51c | 49.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 54c | 46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f6…bab8backed Yes | 57c | 43.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 139 | 51.8%72 W · 67 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a6…d90cbacked Yes | 47c | 38.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8bcc…806ebacked Yes | 56c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cc…9986backed Yes | 58c | 25.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc5…1ea2backed Yes | 56c | 25.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1bd…35a1backed Yes | 56c | 25.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…b4cabacked No | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -6.9wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…d900backed Yes | 56c | 24.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d69…cbc8backed Yes | 56c | 24.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34f1…0ecabacked Yes | 56c | 23.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97cf…ad38backed Yes | 56c | 23.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe906…28cdbacked Yes | 56c | 23.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4c…745bbacked Yes | 56c | 22.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x744a…8045backed Yes | 56c | 22.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…df55backed Yes | 56c | 21.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69ca…40adbacked Yes | 56c | 21.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x440b…7551backed Yes | 56c | 21.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4799…07febacked Yes | 56c | 21.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef4…66c0backed Yes | 56c | 21.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -50%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18af…af4dbacked Yes | 56c | 21.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65cf…5206backed Yes | 56c | 21.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…5010backed Yes | 56c | 21.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…adc3backed Yes | 56c | 21.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…594cbacked Yes | 56c | 20.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e37…ac4abacked Yes | 56c | 18.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Philliesthis page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 5.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.