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MLB · resolved market

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$29,585
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$29,575

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,585 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Over58c7,725$4,477 inWon+$3,248.212,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04e3…69d1backed Under52c3,000$1,560 inLost-$1,5601136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.18per pick55cpaid-36.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Under48c2,829$1,358 inLost-$1,357.894,42747.5%2,101 W · 2,326 L-77.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under42c1,584$669 inLost-$669.1711,10251.5%5,715 W · 5,387 L+135.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc365…2e53backed Under55c888.94$489 inLost-$488.611,60753.2%855 W · 752 L+74.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over51c801.39$412 inWon+$389.759,89146.4%4,594 W · 5,297 L+40.7wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe28c…ffb3backed Under2c600$12 inLost-$121050%5 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-24.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under6c599.99$38 inLost-$3870737.6%266 W · 441 L+24.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b74…0482backed Over56c317.59$176 inWon+$141.1752228%146 W · 376 L-57.7wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-38.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x762e…4bf0backed Under45c309.57$140 inLost-$140.0725451.2%130 W · 124 L-9.2wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x07e2…4b9cbacked Under40c303.15$120 inLost-$120.2727450.7%139 W · 135 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa11f…1252backed Under46c301.78$139 inLost-$138.8218651.1%95 W · 91 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Over42c281.8$118 inWon+$163.765,18254.6%2,829 W · 2,353 L+227.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Under41c234.92$96 inLost-$96.323,23151.2%1,655 W · 1,576 L+148.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa54d…deb8backed Over53c189.57$100 inWon+$89.5730251%154 W · 148 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Under32c159$51 inLost-$50.526,13255.4%3,395 W · 2,737 L+346.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Over31c131.52$41 inWon+$90.753,46751.2%1,775 W · 1,692 L+105.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8649…ba57backed Over48c104.17$50 inWon+$54.174748.9%23 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe134…f6dabacked Under49c100.73$49 inLost-$49.277158.1%448 W · 323 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2792…c4f6backed Under31c56.44$17 inLost-$17.573949.8%368 W · 371 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Over48c52.81$25 inWon+$27.464,53449%2,220 W · 2,314 L-41.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over48c40$19 inWon+$20.81,87852.1%978 W · 900 L+52.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x113f…ae4dbacked Over47c40$19 inWon+$21.25853.4%31 W · 27 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over57c36.73$21 inWon+$15.7511,65352.8%6,157 W · 5,496 L+214.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff68…8379backed Over60c35$21 inWon+$14.126940.5%109 W · 160 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28f7…404dbacked Over47c34.04$16 inWon+$18.0447646.2%220 W · 256 L+0.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73bd…b576backed Under45c29.18$13 inLost-$13.1327557.1%157 W · 118 L+8.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb93…94cfbacked Under46c27.67$13 inLost-$12.685046%23 W · 27 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e62…79f1backed Under48c26.44$13 inLost-$12.6942047.9%201 W · 219 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d5f…1171backed Over57c24.36$14 inWon+$10.4758254.3%316 W · 266 L+16.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c3f…e6a2backed Over57c23.68$14 inWon+$10.0724448.8%119 W · 125 L-14.9wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-17.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.