MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7036b21580a13a71f902887615f607650873db7f396fb5cd5f3340e3eeceac22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,925
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,605
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,925 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x547f…2937backed Under | 72c | 14,814$10,602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,212.45 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 28c | 13,894$3,953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,953.17 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Under | 54c | 10,030$5,416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,614.1 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x418d…88a3backed Over | 58c | 2,500$1,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,450 | 122 | 55.7%68 W · 54 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 58c | 2,022$1,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,167.59 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 44c | 1,828$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810.23 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 55c | 1,778$978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.1 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 42c | 1,720$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$997.6 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Under | 42c | 1,613$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$935.35 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 58c | 1,061$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.24 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 42c | 714.29$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 475 | 45.9%218 W · 257 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 50c | 681.19$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.88 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 42c | 500$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 34c | 481.5$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.26 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 65c | 458.13$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.42 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe459…737dbacked Over | 55c | 420.79$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.43 | 107 | 47.7%51 W · 56 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 44c | 402$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.8 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 43c | 299.99$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 42c | 299$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.42 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed Over | 58c | 290$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.2 | 268 | 60.4%162 W · 106 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b74…0482backed Over | 32c | 261.61$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.98 | 522 | 28%146 W · 376 L | -57.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 44c | 196.31$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.23 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed Over | 42c | 190$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 209 | 44%92 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfa…8b61backed Over | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 183 | 56.8%104 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02e0…3741backed Over | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 163 | 49.1%80 W · 83 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 46c | 169.33$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.89 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 43c | 140.06$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.4 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 56c | 120$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Under | 42c | 112.21$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.08 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 42c | 104.8$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.78 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Under | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.5 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 79c | 74.74$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 59c | 67.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.18 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Under | 56c | 67$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 539 | 50.6%273 W · 266 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2725…e7d1backed Under | 47c | 63.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.81 | 358 | 49.4%177 W · 181 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 49c | 63$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6f…fe71backed Over | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -9.0wins | -0.26per pick | 49cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed Under | 63c | 59.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 244 | 48.8%119 W · 125 L | -14.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 30c | 58.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Over | 44c | 57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 295 | 47.1%139 W · 156 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…95b1backed Under | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 286 | 39.2%112 W · 174 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Under | 42c | 54.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.3 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 58c | 50.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 37c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff68…8379backed Over | 35c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e20…5cf9backed Over | 32c | 44.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a98…639dbacked Over | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 309 | 60.2%186 W · 123 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76d2…99a6backed Over | 29c | 38.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe997…61b6backed Over | 31c | 36.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 254 | 52.8%134 W · 120 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2126…aeebbacked Under | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1882…1af4backed Over | 47c | 22.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…8620backed Over | 58c | 20.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 320 | 54.1%173 W · 147 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 5.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia PhilliesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.