MLB · resolved market
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2064f298f0a6a3b842a6e382ec3af6e5db9e34060d843f0d9eb8259c5494337b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pittsburgh Piratesof Pittsburgh Pirates, Philadelphia Phillies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,734
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,775
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,734 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Philadelphia Phillies | 50c | 3,759$1,869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,869.18 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 27c | 2,875$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,094.14 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 48c | 2,871$1,392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,478.54 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 73c | 2,287$1,663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,663.26 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 61c | 444.86$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.44 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 35c | 334.96$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.86 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 35c | 216.2$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.53 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7693…470fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 65c | 200$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 213 | 54.5%116 W · 97 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 33c | 199.39$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.07 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 27c | 132.96$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.06 | 231 | 40.3%93 W · 138 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b74…0482backed Philadelphia Phillies | 50c | 99.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 522 | 28%146 W · 376 L | -57.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Philadelphia Phillies | 71c | 70.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.13 | 765 | 58%444 W · 321 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 50c | 70.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.17 | 926 | 45.9%425 W · 501 L | -12.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Philadelphia Phillies | 67c | 64$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.07 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 35c | 57.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…2c66backed Philadelphia Phillies | 65c | 56.43$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.68 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Philadelphia Phillies | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 27c | 49.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.47 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 47.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.17 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 27c | 47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.31 | 1,022 | 50.6%517 W · 505 L | +54.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 61c | 47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Philadelphia Phillies | 65c | 45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 35c | 45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Philadelphia Phillies | 61c | 44.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 28c | 43.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6f…fe71backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -9.0wins | -0.26per pick | 49cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x127b…e213backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Philadelphia Phillies | 66c | 37.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 906 | 69.9%633 W · 273 L | +94.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 36.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 343 | 55.4%190 W · 153 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Philadelphia Phillies | 61c | 33.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 1,737 | 49.1%852 W · 885 L | +7.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 31c | 33.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 390 | 51.5%201 W · 189 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 45c | 31.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71ac…5fd6backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 50c | 31.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Philadelphia Phillies | 57c | 31.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c77…8d9cbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 65c | 30.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 1,884 | 53%998 W · 886 L | +16.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 64c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Philadelphia Phillies | 61c | 28.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 61c | 25.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0c…b898backed Philadelphia Phillies | 76c | 23.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…428cbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 67c | 22.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 191 | 63.4%121 W · 70 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…5720backed Philadelphia Phillies | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…ceafbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 65c | 19.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 228 | 53.5%122 W · 106 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 68c | 18.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 5.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia PhilliesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.