Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88d3226158a1627d6d4c40d92740466d3e357a5553cc35967f5afb4684b37eb3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,392
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,304
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,392 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d5f…634dbacked Yes | 34c | 604.42$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.43 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 69c | 207.49$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 27c | 150.68$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.57 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 66c | 126$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.98 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e82…af92backed No | 67c | 98.9$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 69cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 27c | 53.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 309 | 18.1%56 W · 253 L | -29.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 23c | 46.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 37c | 43.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f9b…a9aabacked Yes | 47c | 42.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked No | 62c | 40.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 68c | 34.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 70c | 34.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 33.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7d…ca41backed No | 66c | 29.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in April?this page
- Will the US add at least 250k jobs in April?No won
- Will the US add between 0 and 50k jobs in April?No won
- Will the US add between 100k and 150k jobs in April?Yes won
- Will the US add between 150k and 200k jobs in April?No won
- Will the US add between 200k and 250k jobs in April?No won
- Will the US lose between 0 and 50k jobs in April?No won
- Will the US lose more than 50k jobs in April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.