China Taiwan · resolved market
Xi Jinping seen in public by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88e5e1c49c035e36a95e41b5d9f5c23c88688e6a4cc043e5ab06d042825fcc26
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,642
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,398
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,642 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 9,865$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.93 | 127 | 7.9%10 W · 117 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x679c…f8ddbacked No | 4c | 7,933$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed No | 1c | 3,579$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 70c | 2,463$1,725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.45 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 40cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 18c | 1,567$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.43 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 63c | 727$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.68 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…25e5backed No | 62c | 513.27$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.84 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 29c | 497.53$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 41c | 400$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.5 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 53c | 309.81$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 24c | 290$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.84 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked No | 13c | 283.31$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x416f…18d8backed No | 60c | 280$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c97…1b68backed No | 57c | 258.88$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8981…ce82backed Yes | 41c | 257.92$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 19c | 250$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed No | 63c | 230$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.75 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…c066backed Yes | 37c | 200$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f0c…ca14backed No | 51c | 198.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c4…c441backed Yes | 44c | 124.84$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 56c | 120$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…5479backed No | 56c | 87.12$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b9…558dbacked No | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bd…ae77backed No | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa57c…505cbacked No | 63c | 79.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 41c | 75.91$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.15 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe42e…60b7backed Yes | 43c | 44.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06d7…2174backed No | 57c | 40.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x440d…55e6backed Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x333b…00e9backed No | 60c | 33.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…c6c4backed No | 60c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 57c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3877…dcf0backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180a…8b0dbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.