Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x890eefc2d2fd01aa2e8b413514e8ac8b4aa0b4a510b42f4f31bfadc74b64387d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,459
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,762
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,459 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x535b…4b60backed Yes | 34c | 439.75$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 19c | 438.98$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.64 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 65c | 373.94$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.88 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 79c | 372.6$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.48 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 68c | 283.15$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.03 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 72c | 261.97$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.46 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 258.9$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.39 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 254.04$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.59 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 33c | 249.83$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.1 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 66c | 243$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.93 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 25c | 234.15$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 204.57$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.95 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed Yes | 30c | 196.82$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.79 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 31c | 188.96$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 47c | 184.08$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.49 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 15c | 179.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 67c | 176.92$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.77 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 164$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.19 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5519…1986backed Yes | 25c | 152.83$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 79c | 151.97$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.66 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 14c | 149.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed No | 75c | 144.5$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.12 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed No | 68c | 143.69$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.12 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 141.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 17c | 131.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 64c | 127.84$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.19 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 29c | 122.76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 68c | 114$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.01 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 24c | 109.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 65c | 103.96$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.46 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe9…56d9backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…9b60backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 159 | 15.7%25 W · 134 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6986…5585backed Yes | 15c | 99.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 96.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked No | 78c | 95.87$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 16c | 91.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x632e…6a56backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 36c | 87$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.12 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb04…48cfbacked Yes | 29c | 83.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 100 | 23%23 W · 77 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…07dfbacked Yes | 18c | 81.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 16c | 81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 72c | 78.81$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 63c | 77$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…ae32backed Yes | 30c | 74.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64f8…eec6backed Yes | 24c | 74.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked No | 66c | 72.67$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…6400backed Yes | 25c | 70.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 33c | 67.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c16…d262backed No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…04c2backed Yes | 28c | 62.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 62c | 62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…8b13backed No | 71c | 56.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 69c | 56$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 33c | 55.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…0de3backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 32c | 55.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed Yes | 33c | 54.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…6c6bbacked Yes | 31c | 53.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 57c | 53.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 23c | 53.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed Yes | 29c | 52.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 28c | 50.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 65c | 50.57$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 35c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35b6…caadbacked No | 73c | 49.72$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 66c | 48.42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…251fbacked No | 69c | 48.29$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +16.0wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 66c | 48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 32c | 46.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 68c | 45.67$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 36c | 44.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 26c | 42.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked Yes | 32c | 42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…cc0dbacked Yes | 28c | 39.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 75c | 37.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…1c86backed No | 66c | 36.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 67c | 36.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…79b1backed No | 67c | 34.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 60c | 32.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 32c | 32.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed No | 75c | 32.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 33c | 31.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d6…eb5cbacked No | 66c | 30.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfc…26febacked Yes | 41c | 29.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 70c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0558…a8cdbacked No | 67c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 118 | 67.8%80 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 40c | 26.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked No | 66c | 25.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 66c | 25.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 69c | 25.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc17…886abacked No | 68c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 72 | 81.9%59 W · 13 L | +8.8wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 67c | 21.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3b…7bb2backed No | 76c | 21.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C or higher on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.