Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7cee76e300c541fb1aa2c98c820df45999e7b799607e76fe05f1318e95b5509c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,631
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,448
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,631 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 15c | 689.12$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.92 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 466.59$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.89 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x535b…4b60backed Yes | 34c | 435.02$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.02 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 17c | 381.56$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.73 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 357.27$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.33 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 40c | 316.53$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.76 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…0de3backed Yes | 80c | 262.58$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.58 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed Yes | 41c | 253.43$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.52 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 36c | 223$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.41 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 53c | 222.02$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.96 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 51c | 201.96$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.41 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 70c | 190.66$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.72 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 44c | 189.45$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.59 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 48c | 178$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.17 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcce9…2199backed No | 54c | 174.87$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.04 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 40c | 172.16$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.97 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 45c | 147$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.3 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 68c | 134.16$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.83 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21fb…842cbacked Yes | 40c | 129$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.53 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 56c | 100.69$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.2 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64f8…eec6backed Yes | 58c | 100.5$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 45c | 99.26$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 46c | 98.92$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.63 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 63c | 94.07$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.82 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 69c | 90.96$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.35 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 46c | 88.44$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.57 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 37c | 87.17$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.17 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 61c | 81.35$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.27 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e1…ac51backed No | 59c | 80.8$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.56 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e91…a1b7backed No | 62c | 80.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.89 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 51c | 79.39$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.03 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 39c | 77.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…ae32backed No | 41c | 77.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.87 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 55c | 74.55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3df3…c0d0backed Yes | 62c | 71.31$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…9f69backed Yes | 61c | 65.6$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 15c | 64.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 115 | 19.1%22 W · 93 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 47c | 64.71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 59c | 62.09$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.74 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.85 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 51c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 56c | 59.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.39 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 24c | 57.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 39c | 53.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 40c | 52.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.38 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 55c | 51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…6c6bbacked Yes | 27c | 50.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.85 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 37c | 50.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.53 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…b301backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.79 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0295…49d0backed No | 45c | 49.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 60c | 47.95$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 38c | 47.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.32 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 46c | 47.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 62c | 46.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 46c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 59c | 44.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 58c | 43.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 26c | 43.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.93 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 45c | 40.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c8…d0a3backed No | 50c | 38.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -5.0wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 53c | 38.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf4…3b45backed Yes | 48c | 38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 63c | 37.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed Yes | 50c | 37.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 64c | 37.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 36c | 37.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 53c | 36.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 51c | 35.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 66c | 35.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 37c | 35.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 58c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 64c | 34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…cc0dbacked Yes | 60c | 33.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 36c | 32.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 65c | 32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 33c | 30.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.57 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 60c | 24.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…3e60backed Yes | 54c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 20.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 77c | 20.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c6…d465backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a6…6216backed No | 66c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C or higher on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.