World Politics · resolved market
Honduras Election: Nasralla flips Asfura by Wednesday 12 PM ET?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x890f11b3eb76e70d7024030c0188db7ed6c36d8e403d8787ffa32f926040aa5c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,619
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,848
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,619 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xce49…c3b9backed No | 1c | 3,357$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed No | 41c | 1,195$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.42 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc07…7cb3backed Yes | 44c | 881.35$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 48c | 662.33$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.27 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfe…ab8dbacked No | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd061…d5e4backed No | 3c | 500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -61%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 61c | 313.86$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.68 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Yes | 46c | 300$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.4 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f2…7027backed No | 53c | 208.59$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.57 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 33c | 160$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.51 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | -6.0wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 49c | 158.23$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.93 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…f8e4backed Yes | 60c | 140.87$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.91 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3091…013cbacked Yes | 27c | 140$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6586…c69cbacked Yes | 47c | 131.76$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.37 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 44c | 68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 71c | 55.66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedad…1af7backed Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcef8…5f80backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23a5…2c53backed Yes | 44c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6516…5b27backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd28a…d195backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe4…ff36backed No | 46c | 23.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48f3…104fbacked Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x214c…6378backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.