Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89101d31d7d7dbba4496262db625fc8aa252438fa9516e3e5c22be49aca0ca6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,171
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,716
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,171 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 3,950$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.27 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bd…169abacked Yes | 3c | 1,084$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 1c | 1,064$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 6c | 690.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 4c | 541.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2c48…44ebbacked Yes | 3c | 431.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 15c | 425.61$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.39 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 10c | 319.66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed Yes | 13c | 247.1$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 15c | 204.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 19c | 204.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.71 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 12c | 197$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 21c | 190$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 8c | 186.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 6c | 185.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 8c | 179.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…a34dbacked Yes | 20c | 176.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…e428backed Yes | 13c | 169.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 99 | 31.3%31 W · 68 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 169.23$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.95 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 17c | 151.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 20c | 126.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked No | 79c | 126.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 22c | 116.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 9c | 114.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 13c | 110$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf7…fd78backed Yes | 22c | 107$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf2…ca49backed Yes | 24c | 105.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 18c | 102.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 81.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 78.83$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 80c | 68.34$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 21c | 66.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 72c | 58.35$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9382…dd19backed Yes | 26c | 57.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 85 | 15.3%13 W · 72 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd87d…e519backed Yes | 20c | 51.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 79c | 47$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 33.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 74c | 26.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 79c | 26.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 80c | 25.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 79c | 25.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c000backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 79c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbae0…f34bbacked No | 79c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 79c | 20.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 16.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…ff36backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c0f…229abacked No | 79c | 12.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.66 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 80cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on May 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.