TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,407
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,678

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,407 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes8c703.27$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5540226.9%108 W · 294 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc13…8c5dbacked Yes69c700$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.15540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick61cpaid-34.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes16c425.68$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.0223436.3%85 W · 149 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x437f…5b95backed Yes42c420.47$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.312536.8%46 W · 79 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No74c408.55$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.264,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd661…2750backed Yes41c366.03$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.9288028.9%254 W · 626 L-2.9wins0.00per pick29cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c21…3fb9backed Yes44c299.99$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.7913260.6%80 W · 52 L+14.6wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+48.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2e16…27c0backed No54c280.03$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.0329748.5%144 W · 153 L+18.2wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+24.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes18c241.14$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.354,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes25c240.2$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes26c238$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.8891444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6297…517ebacked Yes14c201.56$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.451,64327.8%456 W · 1,187 L+117.6wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+33%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes22c200.76$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.673,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No56c200.42$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.543,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes14c188.23$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.51,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x83cd…e218backed Yes62c161.62$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009448.9%46 W · 48 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes24c155.41$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.575,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7966…b251backed No75c154.69$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.5214359.4%85 W · 58 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6719…a34dbacked Yes28c139.7$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.259129.7%27 W · 64 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+19.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes44c132.46$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.0223540.9%96 W · 139 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ebb…405abacked Yes45c130$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.8579040.9%323 W · 467 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes14c112.11$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1799962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3cc0…1912backed Yes17c111.55$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9616116.1%26 W · 135 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-34.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked No53c110.96$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.565625.8%169 W · 487 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-35.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No55c108.2$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.696,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5eb5…d2c8backed Yes47c101.1$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485143.1%22 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xedec…d967backed Yes26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2617926.3%47 W · 132 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed Yes35c99.98$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3989661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No68c93$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.775,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No71c92$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.689,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x164c…3e39backed Yes54c90$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.751,03451.3%530 W · 504 L+69.5wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xfe49…882ebacked No79c88.8$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.61475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick73cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes39c82.34$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.783,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No52c80.95$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.074,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes26c80$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.818814.4%27 W · 161 L-14.7wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-14.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4dd0…3df2backed No50c79.59$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.759147.3%43 W · 48 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc47e…0fc4backed Yes31c71.97$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.314738.3%18 W · 29 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No56c71.6$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.43,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes30c70.51$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1541033.7%138 W · 272 L+20.9wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+19.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa09d…af80backed No50c70$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.921150.7%107 W · 104 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+23.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes15c67.31$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3510,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No58c66.01$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.763,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0786…df1dbacked Yes36c65.29$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7123060.9%140 W · 90 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e9c…ba19backed No38c60$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373148.4%15 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No54c57.75$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.452,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c70…edf3backed Yes21c57.14$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1212539.2%49 W · 76 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f25…bee4backed Yes42c55$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.359341.9%39 W · 54 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No38c53.98$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.31,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No67c53$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.255,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No56c51.14$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.662,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f37…1410backed No75c51$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.7584930.6%260 W · 589 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x425d…6cb0backed Yes48c50.34$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2425344.7%113 W · 140 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad58…7624backed Yes26c50.2$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0554232.3%175 W · 367 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec70…961bbacked Yes49c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73ae…3b52backed Yes24c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125738.6%22 W · 35 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed Yes32c45.95$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.512,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes51c40.9$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8616548.5%80 W · 85 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed No51c40.88$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.2271159.2%421 W · 290 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No79c40.76$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.451,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x94c0…a805backed No68c40$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137558.7%44 W · 31 L-4.7wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-10.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb36…9575backed Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104632.6%15 W · 31 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x07de…d541backed No61c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.653429.4%10 W · 24 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-28.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No70c40$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.22,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbae0…f34bbacked No80c40$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81464.3%9 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick70cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed Yes32c38.65$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2948919.2%94 W · 395 L-38.7wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xccf4…6741backed No80c37.29$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.464100%4 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf279…202cbacked No46c37.26$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.186448.4%31 W · 33 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No53c36$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed No56c35.56$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.651,01860.2%613 W · 405 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf129…1edcbacked Yes61c32.53$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2012955.8%72 W · 57 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb830…2ff3backed Yes62c32.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203650%18 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1941…deeabacked No77c32$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.361,07236.6%392 W · 680 L+25.9wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No58c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.688650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0af…cc7dbacked No35c30$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.54647.8%22 W · 24 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x059f…d749backed No46c29.99$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.21735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-19.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No78c29.58$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.451,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes61c29.03$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5749547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No68c29$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.284,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No68c28$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.964,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfaf3…782cbacked No64c27.99$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.181,87663%1,181 W · 695 L+0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8125…d5d1backed Yes52c27.12$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.752,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No57c24$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.322,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf136…5941backed No74c20.79$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.52564%16 W · 9 L+5.2wins+0.21per pick43cpaid+54.6%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No59c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.21,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No79c18.15$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.812,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No76c17.91$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.3899963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No65c17$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.92,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x18c9…1e8abacked No69c16.43$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.061968.4%13 W · 6 L+6.5wins+0.34per pick34cpaid+195.8%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No71c15.22$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.48,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.