Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea1fc4311292da40122a07761505eb63ac5b8f7b8e76201fe4ef4b87f98e51bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,388
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,578
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,388 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 1c | 1,678$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked No | 1c | 1,072$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 32c | 1,006$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.72 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 10c | 844.66$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.54 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 29c | 837.18$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.25 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf2…ca49backed No | 5c | 423.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 60c | 286.33$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.18 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 25c | 285.06$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.27 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 26c | 264.57$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.54 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed Yes | 54c | 263.56$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.75 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 17c | 259$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed Yes | 19c | 250$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.6 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 52c | 231.4$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.94 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 41c | 231.14$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.39 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 28c | 192.83$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.19 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 18c | 168.41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 24c | 150$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.5 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 71c | 143$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.66 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 33c | 141.35$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.7 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 47c | 137.89$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.12 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 17c | 133.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.09 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 78c | 128.42$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…af97backed Yes | 72c | 126$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.66 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 24c | 124.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa02…36f6backed No | 29c | 120.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 50c | 119.89$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.09 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 80c | 117.6$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 27c | 117$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.83 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed No | 44c | 116.12$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.47 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 34c | 115.88$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.96 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 75c | 112.61$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.38 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 46c | 111$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.75 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 110$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.36 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed Yes | 39c | 106.96$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.31 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 68c | 105$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x974c…13a2backed Yes | 29c | 104.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +249.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…e428backed Yes | 21c | 104.22$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.47 | 99 | 31.3%31 W · 68 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 33c | 103.46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.72 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccf7…fd78backed Yes | 34c | 100.02$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.42 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc47e…0fc4backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 62c | 96.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.64 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 28c | 94.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.39 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbadf…120dbacked Yes | 31c | 94.72$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.58 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59c1…12cebacked Yes | 27c | 93.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.14 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 33c | 93.09$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.37 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 93$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.05 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 22c | 92.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.52 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 91.15$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x904c…4172backed No | 67c | 89.56$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.01 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 19c | 85.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.31 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 40c | 85.06$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.03 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 22c | 84.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.64 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 79.21$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.84 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 78c | 77.16$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 72c | 76.09$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.79 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed No | 23c | 73.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 79c | 72.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 69c | 72.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0f…b5acbacked No | 68c | 70$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 17c | 65.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.66 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 64.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.52 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 43c | 61.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 33c | 59.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.4 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 53c | 59.02$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.46 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 72c | 54.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 53.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 23c | 52.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.18 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 20c | 52.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd87d…e519backed Yes | 33c | 51.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.35 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 20c | 51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…db8dbacked No | 23c | 50.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73ae…3b52backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94c0…a805backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 67c | 49.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31ea…46d5backed Yes | 33c | 49.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.36 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -5.6wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8125…d5d1backed Yes | 41c | 49.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 25c | 44.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.79 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 41c | 41.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 75c | 41.34$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked No | 76c | 39.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 76c | 39.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 32c | 39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d4…34e1backed Yes | 29c | 37.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +160.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 71c | 35.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 75c | 34.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 33.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbae0…f34bbacked No | 68c | 33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 46c | 32.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked No | 67c | 31.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x059f…d749backed No | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c000backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…64fabacked No | 67c | 28.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on May 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.