South American Leagues · resolved market
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2025-12-07?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x892d4fd9910c7cf36cbd20f9af642e218e1774271b3e14afa2668ab50e499abd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,629
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,329
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,629 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 70c | 6,234$4,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,889.81 | 181 | 29.8%54 W · 127 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 69c | 3,886$2,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,679.91 | 332 | 51.8%172 W · 160 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 19c | 3,132$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.6 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e73…c4ecbacked No | 2c | 3,037$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +438.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 27c | 3,024$803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,221.5 | 436 | 18.8%82 W · 354 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 70c | 2,713$1,893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,892.9 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 74c | 2,117$1,576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,575.9 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 29c | 1,534$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,085.19 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 19c | 1,514$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,223.09 | 271 | 33.9%92 W · 179 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 75c | 1,285$964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$964.1 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 25c | 998.17$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750.61 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 71c | 906.46$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.83 | 208 | 46.6%97 W · 111 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 74c | 810.33$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.02 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3b…6ba5backed Yes | 25c | 800$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 76 | 19.7%15 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 72c | 618.75$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.43 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb853…0d33backed Yes | 25c | 530.84$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.13 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 46c | 482$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.94 | 329 | 36.5%120 W · 209 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…374abacked No | 68c | 436$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.95 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…959bbacked Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.14 | 123 | 31.7%39 W · 84 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 36c | 344$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.73 | 192 | 39.1%75 W · 117 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…0dd9backed Yes | 26c | 290$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.6 | 144 | 22.9%33 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 39c | 289.08$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.49 | 120 | 45.8%55 W · 65 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 75c | 213$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.75 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked No | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 88 | 42%37 W · 51 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f20…87c9backed No | 73c | 199.99$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed No | 78c | 197.88$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.76 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…3d44backed Yes | 26c | 192$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed No | 59c | 134.76$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.92 | 117 | 38.5%45 W · 72 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 61c | 130$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.35 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2544…6221backed Yes | 35c | 115.17$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.17 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 69c | 110.16$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.3 | 119 | 59.7%71 W · 48 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5913…3bbebacked Yes | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.14 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 184 | 33.2%61 W · 123 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb456…1774backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac3…2ab9backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d78…a4ccbacked No | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 66c | 84$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.75 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 24c | 83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.08 | 318 | 27%86 W · 232 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 151 | 58.3%88 W · 63 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…479dbacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked No | 72c | 78.4$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.45 | 63 | 63.5%40 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Yes | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.13 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.21per pick | 30cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xda9e…42e0backed Yes | 41c | 72.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.94 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5833…4893backed No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ab…44dfbacked Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf813…c007backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14d2…1e07backed Yes | 27c | 56.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +275.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Yes | 24c | 54.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.17 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c2…979ebacked Yes | 29c | 52.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +250.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 47c | 52.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 46c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.35 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +18.0wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7a…85bfbacked Yes | 24c | 45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +309.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 63c | 41.03$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde22…292abacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +124.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 137 | 39.4%54 W · 83 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e6…df3cbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.28per pick | 30cpaid | +107.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x855b…8dd0backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcad…0a68backed No | 76c | 34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0052…4d9ebacked Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked No | 78c | 26.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed No | 78c | 25.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xadd2…350cbacked No | 71c | 24.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed No | 79c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 62cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 68c | 18.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 266 | 59.8%159 W · 107 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…16e7backed Yes | 74c | 14.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed No | 72c | 14.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 124 | 64.5%80 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SE Palmeiras win on 2025-12-07?this page
- Will Ceará SC vs. SE Palmeiras end in a draw?No won
- Will Ceará SC win on 2025-12-07?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.