South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Ceará SC win on 2025-12-07?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa814fbba5f6f740afa23a1c91b6ee0346e1ed344c4d6652459c3ba29b1168289
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,722
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,006
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,722 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 57c | 20,000$11,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,600 | 316 | 43%136 W · 180 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 44c | 11,991$5,281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,280.72 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc16b…8404backed Yes | 43c | 10,000$4,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,300 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c16…09cbbacked Yes | 43c | 9,502$4,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,085.99 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 56c | 7,748$4,337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,410.35 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 57c | 7,718$4,382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,336.65 | 332 | 51.8%172 W · 160 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 44c | 1,702$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.98 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed Yes | 25c | 1,030$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.93 | 117 | 38.5%45 W · 72 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 66c | 970.87$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.4 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Yes | 44c | 898.32$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.32 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 45c | 797$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.1 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 35c | 545.18$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.12 | 162 | 34.6%56 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26e7…cc6cbacked Yes | 41c | 487$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.67 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Yes | 43c | 350$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes | 28c | 314.71$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.54 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 56c | 310$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.86 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 41c | 307.26$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.45 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x303b…53cabacked Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 59c | 294$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.69 | 181 | 29.8%54 W · 127 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…374abacked Yes | 35c | 286.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.24 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked No | 68c | 283$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.56 | 192 | 39.1%75 W · 117 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Yes | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Yes | 25c | 199.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.78 | 88 | 42%37 W · 51 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Yes | 44c | 198.41$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.47 | 2,173 | 43.6%948 W · 1,225 L | -55.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed No | 55c | 160$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3b…6ba5backed No | 27c | 144.44$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.44 | 76 | 19.7%15 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 63c | 141.37$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.54 | 120 | 45.8%55 W · 65 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed No | 57c | 124.05$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.44 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…3d44backed Yes | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 398 | 53%211 W · 187 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4b…2f7dbacked No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed Yes | 40c | 99.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.61 | 119 | 59.7%71 W · 48 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda9e…42e0backed Yes | 45c | 97.41$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.59 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2076…bf0dbacked Yes | 43c | 70.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb79…91b5backed No | 62c | 61$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdb…6289backed Yes | 48c | 56.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed No | 55c | 51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…5480backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72b4…7eebbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed No | 43c | 43.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecd8…91c7backed Yes | 44c | 40.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd3…8254backed Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 68c | 33.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 373 | 55.2%206 W · 167 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6f…1176backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8566…b1a5backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked No | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Yes | 48c | 25.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Yes | 44c | 23.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 124 | 64.5%80 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d3…432abacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadd2…350cbacked No | 58c | 19.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ceará SC win on 2025-12-07?this page
- Will Ceará SC vs. SE Palmeiras end in a draw?No won
- Will SE Palmeiras win on 2025-12-07?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.