TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

WNBA · resolved market

Lynx vs. Mercury

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Mercuryof Lynx, Mercury
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$94,864
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$110,911

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,864 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 143 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in WNBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2129…4222backed Mercury50c12,561$6,278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,283.64438.6%17 W · 27 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Lynx56c8,623$4,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,849.991,61150.2%809 W · 802 L+37.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Mercury40c5,035$2,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,020.9823931.8%76 W · 163 L+11.4wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+16.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Mercury50c4,618$2,295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,323.021533.3%5 W · 10 L-3.2wins-0.21per pick55cpaid-31.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9ec2…69fdbacked Lynx65c3,764$2,447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,446.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc567…04bfbacked Mercury46c3,396$1,558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,838.38333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-27.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5ef…9e7abacked Lynx62c2,905$1,804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,80411545.2%52 W · 63 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x905f…ad6bbacked Lynx55c2,833$1,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,550250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Lynx59c2,500$1,475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,474.98837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick58cpaid-31%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Mercury38c2,458$934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,523.867753.2%41 W · 36 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed Lynx60c2,196$1,318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,317.772646.2%12 W · 14 L-3.5wins-0.14per pick60cpaid-23.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6ab4…bfdbbacked Mercury30c1,675$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,175.2450%2 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+111.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Lynx33c1,546$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.127542.7%32 W · 43 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d2f…ef1abacked Mercury39c1,513$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$922.88250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+28.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Lynx51c1,473$752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752.3260%0 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Lynx32c1,430$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.223528.6%10 W · 25 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-48.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Lynx60c1,246$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748.189055.6%50 W · 40 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick57cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bbc…f458backed Lynx60c1,111$668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.99450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+34.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Mercury29c1,009$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$711.7612840.6%52 W · 76 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Lynx56c1,005$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.921421.4%3 W · 11 L-3.3wins-0.23per pick45cpaid-54.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4fec…fc7bbacked Lynx1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-34.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Mercury39c999.97$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$609.984052.5%21 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick56cpaid+13.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a90…8218backed Lynx63c747.98$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4704346.5%20 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a45…1405backed Lynx57c638.09$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3621346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2fb4…2794backed Lynx49c605.09$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.74757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2630…e941backed Mercury50c600$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.18580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.33per pick47cpaid+59.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Mercury54c528.27$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.3115246.7%71 W · 81 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Lynx61c516$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.767851.3%40 W · 38 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick55cpaid+2.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked Lynx44c496.98$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.387929.1%23 W · 56 L-8.4wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-34.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Mercury38c491.61$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.554835.4%17 W · 31 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-10.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Mercury32c400$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2726651.5%34 W · 32 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb75d…9d01backed Lynx63c390.5$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.96250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Lynx36c383.65$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1402623.1%6 W · 20 L-5.8wins-0.22per pick45cpaid-49.8%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x4bb6…8ebfbacked Lynx61c361.52$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.834042.5%17 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72fe…2a60backed Lynx57c360$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2071040%4 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4924…f328backed Mercury39c356.31$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.64450%22 W · 22 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Mercury31c322.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.5817541.1%72 W · 103 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Lynx20c318$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.0119142.4%81 W · 110 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d28…932abacked Lynx53c315.98$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.072740.7%11 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f19…aec2backed Lynx69c309.99$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.8913044.6%58 W · 72 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Lynx59c300.89$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.52933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-30.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4835…8f59backed Lynx62c300$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x605a…c6debacked Lynx58c299.98$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.993473.5%25 W · 9 L+4.0wins+0.12per pick62cpaid+18.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x49d1…7b96backed Lynx60c286.65$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.993056.7%17 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Lynx61c272.46$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.5231847.8%152 W · 166 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x991e…3190backed Mercury39c258.59$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.74450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+56.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Mercury40c250$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15027232.7%89 W · 183 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Mercury41c243.9$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.923431.6%74 W · 160 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+4.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x89b2…6621backed Mercury40c225.8$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f5e…3eb4backed Mercury40c225.45$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9a0…63c3backed Mercury40c224.38$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe535…6144backed Mercury40c223.78$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a16…fe38backed Mercury40c222.4$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8dfe…7e99backed Mercury41c220.24$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b68…4b56backed Mercury41c219.63$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3118…6cf1backed Mercury41c219.12$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4711…fb23backed Mercury42c214.93$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe16c…4a46backed Mercury42c214.81$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18b3…f665backed Mercury42c214.55$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d2c…c533backed Mercury42c214.07$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa97c…1ebbbacked Mercury42c213.52$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a43…ba71backed Mercury42c213.51$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+140.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x211e…2948backed Mercury42c212.6$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38a8…4645backed Mercury42c211.6$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5151…4cbebacked Mercury42c211.33$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x314f…fa80backed Mercury43c210.12$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ad8…8c13backed Mercury43c209.92$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+134.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc22…c00bbacked Mercury43c209.51$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa161…86fdbacked Mercury50c200.39$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.39425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-49.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x20b9…9110backed Lynx33c200$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.34252.4%22 W · 20 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-9.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6692…1125backed Lynx50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-47.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb99…5d0fbacked Lynx62c198.39$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf0c…2265backed Lynx72c198.08$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.91154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Lynx26c193$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.7812548.8%61 W · 64 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x504f…3ddcbacked Lynx57c191.69$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11020%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3b0e…b61cbacked Lynx24c171.05$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.731070%7 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick59cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Mercury49c156.86$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8021440.7%87 W · 127 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb120…3e3cbacked Lynx61c148.1$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeedc…7e1bbacked Lynx61c148.05$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf828…7e5bbacked Lynx61c148$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5647…0ad9backed Lynx61c147.93$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x980d…bb37backed Lynx61c147.79$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x42e8…9f56backed Lynx61c147.74$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb383…d612backed Lynx61c147.67$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3a6…f3cbbacked Lynx61c147.57$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x10ff…3d43backed Lynx61c147.31$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x16d2…e50dbacked Lynx61c147.08$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ec5…9bf3backed Lynx61c146.97$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x28c5…f73abacked Lynx61c146.84$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc112…3841backed Mercury34c146.56$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+193.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0245…93eabacked Lynx61c146.52$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdeb3…9a76backed Lynx61c146.18$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9316…a696backed Lynx61c145.79$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2702…463fbacked Lynx62c145.65$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4eed…2c13backed Lynx61c145.59$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x95c4…3c8bbacked Lynx62c145.58$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x59f4…b5e2backed Lynx62c145.5$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa470…6089backed Lynx61c145.44$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3a9…c5b8backed Lynx62c145.37$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa82f…6e3ebacked Lynx62c145.34$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.