World Politics · resolved market
Will Trzaskowski or Nawrocki win the diaspora vote?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89417422d769f55be7819206363b3439328c65530819d0415a871634fd86ef19
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Trzaskowskiof Trzaskowski, Nawrocki
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $193,956
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $167,050
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $193,956 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Nawrocki | 1c | 45,551$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.29 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4621…efccbacked Nawrocki | 7c | 11,049$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.14 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e39…6809backed Nawrocki | 3c | 8,000$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd757…42acbacked Nawrocki | 6c | 6,479$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92fd…c48ebacked Nawrocki | 12c | 4,619$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb38e…272bbacked Nawrocki | 2c | 3,129$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784b…de47backed Nawrocki | 7c | 3,057$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Nawrocki | 2c | 2,777$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.83 | 35 | 5.7%2 W · 33 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Nawrocki | 3c | 1,767$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df3…0828backed Nawrocki | 2c | 1,703$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…5d8ebacked Nawrocki | 2c | 1,630$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…4275backed Nawrocki | 4c | 1,580$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.52 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +124.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…6216backed Nawrocki | 1c | 1,442$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2069…c7cfbacked Nawrocki | 1c | 1,350$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | +7.5wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | +166.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…bc9cbacked Nawrocki | 1c | 1,247$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 8cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8782…f6febacked Nawrocki | 2c | 1,224$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked Nawrocki | 3c | 1,178$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa49…7e53backed Nawrocki | 5c | 1,090$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf34a…1e22backed Nawrocki | 1c | 1,032$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Nawrocki | 3c | 1,009$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22ac…29e6backed Nawrocki | 2c | 989.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Nawrocki | 8c | 964.52$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.43 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed1d…3783backed Nawrocki | 2c | 922.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 13cpaid | +134.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Nawrocki | 7c | 857.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.03 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Nawrocki | 7c | 816.82$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.37 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Nawrocki | 3c | 800$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa7…5526backed Nawrocki | 3c | 759.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…e674backed Nawrocki | 4c | 666.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1a…83eabacked Nawrocki | 11c | 619.41$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.4 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46a1…809bbacked Nawrocki | 12c | 612.5$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed Nawrocki | 3c | 584.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Nawrocki | 3c | 488.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 1,437 | 10.2%147 W · 1,290 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Nawrocki | 5c | 454.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 125 | 6.4%8 W · 117 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ff…2e8cbacked Nawrocki | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x501f…f746backed Nawrocki | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 87 | 26.4%23 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +258.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x591f…a286backed Nawrocki | 8c | 334.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48d3…30babacked Nawrocki | 12c | 265$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ded…4c43backed Nawrocki | 8c | 241.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Nawrocki | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Nawrocki | 13c | 130$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40ae…a59ebacked Nawrocki | 8c | 127.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6f…25f0backed Nawrocki | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.