Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x895292124929c86206540859d665dfcbd0f3de6acd67bd3ba84e6678da01900e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,370
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,255
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,370 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed No | 46c | 1,652$758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$894.34 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 47c | 918.87$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.53 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 51c | 748.53$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.24 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa621…0e64backed Yes | 54c | 640$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.6 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked Yes | 78c | 525.01$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.6 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 39c | 386.79$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.84 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 61c | 334.97$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.34 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 7c | 318.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 45c | 300.01$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.14 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked No | 23c | 284.61$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.24 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 45c | 274.76$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.31 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbb…2e57backed Yes | 56c | 268.25$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked No | 47c | 265.96$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.96 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 53c | 231.11$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.37 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 42c | 210.48$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.74 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 72c | 206$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.53 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1a…2987backed No | 49c | 200$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 54c | 196$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.84 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 52c | 172.44$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.32 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 48c | 160.18$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.1 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 60c | 154.44$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.16 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 62c | 150$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.75 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 43c | 146.82$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.14 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 51c | 117.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.75 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 56c | 116.46$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.24 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…dd11backed Yes | 76c | 115$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.29 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…9668backed Yes | 43c | 110$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 109 | 36.7%40 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed No | 64c | 110$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 51c | 107.91$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.53 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 59c | 104.56$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.55 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 43c | 104$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.72 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 57c | 103.19$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.41 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9502…ba22backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 38c | 98.35$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.88 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 42c | 97.66$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.02 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 42c | 96.6$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.03 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…4f51backed No | 51c | 96.15$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.11 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 42c | 93.73$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.73 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 17c | 91.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.73 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 49c | 89.64$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.64 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 34c | 86.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.61 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 79c | 84$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.36 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 66c | 79.72$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 59c | 79.36$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.82 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 59c | 76$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…2c94backed No | 38c | 75.45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.52 | 149 | 19.5%29 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 41c | 71.04$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 72c | 70.27$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.63 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 57c | 70$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 59c | 67.59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.59 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed No | 41c | 67.12$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.39 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 49c | 66.44$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.43 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 34c | 64.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.75 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed No | 31c | 64.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.37 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 49c | 58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…0c9cbacked No | 55c | 55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 45c | 53.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…9f83backed Yes | 76c | 52.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 84 | 76.2%64 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 54c | 48.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 41c | 47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85aa…691bbacked No | 50c | 46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 41c | 45.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 49c | 45.09$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 58c | 43.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked No | 60c | 42.73$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 52c | 42.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 54c | 42.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa4…5c82backed No | 49c | 40.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 43c | 40.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 45c | 40.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 39c | 40.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes | 54c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1028…1316backed Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x166f…dcfebacked Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…dd31backed Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked Yes | 49c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked Yes | 49c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 36.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 34c | 36.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 41c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd27f…13afbacked Yes | 74c | 35.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 41c | 35.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51b8…2202backed Yes | 52c | 33.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48c0…53d5backed Yes | 53c | 32.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 54c | 32.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 61c | 31.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…bf4abacked Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 66.7%36 W · 18 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…6f13backed Yes | 76c | 27.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9434…d8d8backed No | 47c | 27.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 59c | 26.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 53c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C on July 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 35°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 36°C on July 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.