TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on July 22?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,370
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,255

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,370 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x09a8…47c1backed No46c1,652$758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$894.3441845.2%189 W · 229 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked Yes47c918.87$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.532,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes51c748.53$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.241,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa621…0e64backed Yes54c640$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.61330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-23.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x803a…219ebacked Yes78c525.01$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.626265.6%172 W · 90 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed No39c386.79$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.8452322.6%118 W · 405 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-44.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No61c334.97$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.3436057.5%207 W · 153 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes7c318.6$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.736,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes45c300.01$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.141,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed Yes53c300$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1591,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8847…262dbacked No23c284.61$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.2425230.6%77 W · 175 L+21.0wins+0.08per pick22cpaid+7.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes45c274.76$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.3110,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2dbb…2e57backed Yes56c268.25$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9e9…f1ccbacked No47c265.96$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.9613959%82 W · 57 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed No53c231.11$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.371,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes42c210.48$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.748,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes72c206$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.5333561.5%206 W · 129 L-22.2wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-13.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9c1a…2987backed No49c200$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1032245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes54c196$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.844,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeef1…21b8backed Yes52c172.44$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.3243540.5%176 W · 259 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes48c160.18$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.12,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No60c154.44$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.162,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb615…62b9backed No62c150$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.7560550.7%307 W · 298 L-15.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes43c146.82$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.144,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x90ae…2475backed Yes51c117.26$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.7557150.4%288 W · 283 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09b4…e56dbacked No56c116.46$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.2472042.2%304 W · 416 L+26.5wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x914d…dd11backed Yes76c115$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.2910246.1%47 W · 55 L-6.8wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x92eb…9668backed Yes43c110$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.610936.7%40 W · 69 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc15…cca6backed No64c110$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.626441.3%109 W · 155 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed Yes51c107.91$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.531,01860.2%613 W · 405 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed54…4967backed Yes59c104.56$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.5549854.6%272 W · 226 L+46.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed Yes43c104$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.722,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes57c103.19$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.4112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9502…ba22backed Yes79c100$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7911146.8%52 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No38c98.35$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.882,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes42c97.66$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.0218945.5%86 W · 103 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93cc…454ebacked No42c96.6$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.0325541.2%105 W · 150 L+22.4wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+22.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2dbe…4f51backed No51c96.15$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.119150.5%46 W · 45 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No42c93.73$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.731,28256.7%727 W · 555 L-28.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No17c91.72$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.731,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No49c89.64$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.645,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No34c86.8$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.612,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a25…ba81backed Yes79c84$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.3661760.1%371 W · 246 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed No66c79.72$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.9867158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes59c79.36$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.8235264.8%228 W · 124 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No59c76$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.152,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bb3…2c94backed No38c75.45$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.5214919.5%29 W · 120 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick17cpaid+21.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a7c…d7b8backed No41c71.04$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4222550.7%114 W · 111 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes72c70.27$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6341966.6%279 W · 140 L+36.9wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+13.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No57c70$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.95,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9cc…59abbacked No59c67.59$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5968867.2%462 W · 226 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a2f…e889backed No41c67.12$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.3922849.6%113 W · 115 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes49c66.44$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.432,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No34c64.38$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.752,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8cd…0d51backed No31c64.07$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.3714250.7%72 W · 70 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No49c58$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.589,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x671a…0c9cbacked No55c55$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.755457.4%31 W · 23 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked No45c53.89$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.371,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a86…9f83backed Yes76c52.71$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408476.2%64 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcca3…7450backed Yes50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2542643.2%184 W · 242 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes39c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.54,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed Yes47c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.51,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes54c48.75$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3170148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes41c47$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.354,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85aa…691bbacked No50c46$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232259.1%13 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa834…1c25backed Yes41c45.17$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.371,04834.5%362 W · 686 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No49c45.09$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.14,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1775…85b0backed Yes58c43.96$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5136648.4%177 W · 189 L+25.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc6bd…2c9dbacked No60c42.73$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.9321340.8%87 W · 126 L+23.8wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+34%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No52c42.59$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.243,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed No54c42.57$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.7140265.9%265 W · 137 L+31.7wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xeaa4…5c82backed No49c40.95$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.957263.9%46 W · 26 L+0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes43c40.81$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.591,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7956…eba5backed Yes45c40.45$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181,04838.1%399 W · 649 L-3.8wins0.00per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes39c40.06$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.52,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes54c40$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.420438.7%79 W · 125 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1028…1316backed Yes49c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.62347.8%11 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick58cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0294…76a0backed Yes49c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.615246.1%70 W · 82 L-10.6wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-11.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x166f…dcfebacked Yes49c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.62352.2%12 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick55cpaid+0.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4af9…3144backed Yes49c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.621950.7%111 W · 108 L-10.6wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x989e…aa30backed Yes49c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.614745.6%67 W · 80 L-7.5wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb814…dd31backed Yes49c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.611154.1%60 W · 51 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8adb…9e1dbacked Yes49c40$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.416946.7%79 W · 90 L-13.5wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-17.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1dd2…42efbacked Yes49c40$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.415545.2%70 W · 85 L-13.9wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-19.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No57c36.5$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.724,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes34c36.26$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.353,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes41c36$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7622232%71 W · 151 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd27f…13afbacked Yes74c35.95$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.573641.7%15 W · 21 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-5.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed Yes41c35.85$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.71,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51b8…2202backed Yes52c33.89$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.462846.4%13 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No60c33.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.331,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x48c0…53d5backed Yes53c32.79$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.457847.4%37 W · 41 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed Yes54c32.03$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.31,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes61c31.4$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.043,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…bf4abacked Yes67c29.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205466.7%36 W · 18 L+5.1wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+11.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbf69…6f13backed Yes76c27.53$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.939546.3%44 W · 51 L-7.5wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-17.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9434…d8d8backed No47c27.4$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.52666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+52.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf01d…bb31backed No59c26.03$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.6716272.2%117 W · 45 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No53c26$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.344,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5787…1f86backed Yes79c25.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2023560%141 W · 94 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.