Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89632e9a4a3cd39b44a6e6e393e9248c1c85210321c99e7b168f9c57dea26b57
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,995
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,045
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,995 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 29c | 1,351$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$956.63 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 67c | 564.37$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.43 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 25c | 450.18$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.63 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 70c | 448.88$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.24 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 71c | 300$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 27c | 285$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.1 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 51c | 269.15$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.67 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 42c | 246.22$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.68 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 239.27$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.85 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 50c | 221.88$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.92 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 31c | 193.07$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 53c | 188.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.4 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 54c | 184.64$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.93 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 40c | 153.79$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.65 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71fc…eec9backed Yes | 56c | 142.48$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.48 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 53c | 140.85$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.65 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 134.23$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.3 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf87c…cfcbbacked Yes | 79c | 130.1$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 55 | 67.3%37 W · 18 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 47c | 111$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.15 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 48c | 108.52$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.79 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked No | 46c | 103.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.84 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 47c | 99.65$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.97 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 51c | 97.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.24 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 45c | 81$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.7 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Yes | 41c | 74.7$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.15 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 50c | 74.57$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.48 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 28c | 72.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.03 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 45c | 71$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.22 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 52c | 67.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0050…cad1backed No | 65c | 62$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 61c | 61.73$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.55 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 48c | 60.21$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.19 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 69c | 58.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 54c | 57.85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 69c | 52.26$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.86 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 56c | 49.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 53c | 49.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 57c | 48.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7512…1986backed No | 56c | 47.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.8wins | -0.43per pick | 54cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 41c | 46.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 38c | 46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.48 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 72c | 45.89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 53c | 44.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 51c | 42.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 43c | 40.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed Yes | 43c | 40.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.33 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 49c | 39.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 34c | 37.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 45c | 37.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 54c | 33.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6f…aa43backed Yes | 45c | 31.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 47c | 30.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e91…a1b7backed Yes | 41c | 30.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 44c | 30.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ce…7b28backed No | 56c | 30.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 47c | 30.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 47c | 30.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 72c | 27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 56c | 26.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 53c | 25.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc16…1094backed Yes | 79c | 25.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd489…7f08backed No | 78c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 95 | 66.3%63 W · 32 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 44c | 23.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed Yes | 47c | 23.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 62c | 23.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 53c | 22.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed Yes | 51c | 21.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa109…7e42backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 110 | 68.2%75 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 62c | 18.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 65c | 15.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe35…57c3backed No | 70c | 14.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -16.9wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.