Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69c4de2cef6693ec8a46279fcefa5b4b3dfea3604060c5ca72a4f03a897a5ef3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,301
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,774
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,301 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x000f…dc35backed Yes | 36c | 1,352$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.81 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 37c | 1,335$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.56 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 36c | 826.32$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.99 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 624.11$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.22 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 65c | 600$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 528$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.24 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 35c | 527.76$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.64 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 40c | 378.52$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.05 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 61c | 373.41$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.85 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 65c | 363.32$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.81 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 64c | 300$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 279.8$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.83 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 38c | 262.61$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.21 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed No | 63c | 252$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.26 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 68c | 246$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.66 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 209$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.68 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 55c | 199.99$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.99 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 40c | 194.72$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.85 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 188.87$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.52 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 62c | 184.64$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.74 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 53c | 132$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.17 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 43c | 121.6$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.29 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 50c | 114.67$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.34 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 56c | 114.38$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.66 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…8239backed No | 45c | 99.73$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.02 | 128 | 53.9%69 W · 59 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 62c | 97.62$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 62c | 81.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.24 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 80$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3427…2ff7backed No | 64c | 76.17$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.42 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 37c | 71.89$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 63c | 67$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 62c | 63$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 76c | 62.61$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e91…a1b7backed Yes | 51c | 54.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 37c | 53.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 51.26$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed Yes | 33c | 49.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 66c | 45.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 38c | 44.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 72c | 43.4$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 63c | 41.26$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 65c | 39.42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 71c | 39.14$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 62c | 38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed Yes | 49c | 37.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 64c | 36.22$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 68c | 36.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Yes | 38c | 35.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 58c | 34.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 52c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 55c | 31.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 60c | 31.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 65c | 30.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeae4…5c60backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 59c | 28.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 51c | 27.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 63c | 26.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 64c | 24.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe35…57c3backed No | 48c | 23.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -16.9wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 64c | 22.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…74f9backed No | 66c | 22.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 58c | 22.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3e…df5dbacked No | 62c | 21.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 63c | 18.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on July 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.