Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89bb792a2bf9d872f436ce13dbe33d54cdd674b4debd389803a886b3846fc77c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,553
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,791
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,553 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdcb9…1879backed No | 66c | 800$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.05 | 43 | 93%40 W · 3 L | +14.6wins | +0.34per pick | 59cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x91f7…932cbacked Yes | 3c | 566.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 28c | 494.85$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.87 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 67c | 405.11$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.83 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9da…f9debacked No | 60c | 400$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.71 | 59 | 93.2%55 W · 4 L | +21.7wins | +0.37per pick | 56cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 79+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 24c | 331.31$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.93 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94bf…1d2fbacked Yes | 61c | 330.11$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 19c | 262.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.84 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 53c | 253.38$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.66 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e3…6863backed Yes | 21c | 215.38$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.14 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 53c | 210.62$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.66 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 194.1$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.24 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 13c | 192$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 78c | 191.5$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.13 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 41c | 180.53$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.27 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 32c | 177.68$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.16 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 55c | 168.18$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.82 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked No | 77c | 160$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.37 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 75c | 134.39$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.1 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 123$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.46 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad9…2647backed Yes | 21c | 120.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 24c | 115.72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 19c | 112.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 78c | 110.24$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 39c | 104$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.19 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 36c | 98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3609…3a0bbacked Yes | 64c | 92.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.7 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 55c | 89.12$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.02 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 26c | 86.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 67c | 85.74$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.66 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 84.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 27c | 81.09$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.51 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 24c | 77.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 75.89$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3621…9da2backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | +12.1wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b48…fcf0backed Yes | 21c | 66.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +56%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 65.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 22c | 65.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc86d…2e76backed Yes | 23c | 64.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked No | 72c | 63.12$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 59c | 52.52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 39c | 50.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.39 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc329…6a58backed Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x167e…0f16backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 37c | 47.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd2…87c9backed Yes | 22c | 47.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed Yes | 22c | 46.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 161 | 29.2%47 W · 114 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 77c | 41.6$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 77c | 41.56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd46e…11f4backed Yes | 57c | 39.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86cb…0a90backed Yes | 66c | 37.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x884c…2ee9backed Yes | 30c | 37.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 30c | 36.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 76c | 35.63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 76c | 33.96$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed Yes | 63c | 31.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 33c | 31.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 47c | 30.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 80c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed Yes | 57c | 22.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 77c | 22.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x136a…70e8backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4606…7f19backed No | 77c | 19.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 78c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked No | 65c | 18.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 80c | 17.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked No | 74c | 16.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 69c | 15.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa4…5c82backed No | 79c | 14.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.11 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 13.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.98 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.