TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 27?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,176
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,962

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,176 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ae0…7483backed Yes53c868.34$459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.1310539%41 W · 64 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes39c853.01$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519.71,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes67c555.29$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.896,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes47c393.52$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.368,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes6c368.27$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.123,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x94bf…1d2fbacked Yes64c349.66$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.661947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-26.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91f7…932cbacked No9c344.45$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.24814.6%7 W · 41 L-4.4wins-0.09per pick24cpaid-62.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No32c318.18$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.734,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes51c272.43$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.845,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No47c250$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.556543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No42c220.26$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.684,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No60c214$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.43,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No55c194.26$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.825,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked Yes44c188.15$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.22,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No53c162.97$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.5710,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x875e…e6b5backed Yes46c160$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.178176.5%62 W · 19 L+14.7wins+0.18per pick58cpaid+39%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No15c151.67$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3153855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No56c149.93$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.961,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1917…138bbacked Yes45c147.6$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.1833746.9%158 W · 179 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes47c135.3$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.5414452.8%76 W · 68 L+20.6wins+0.14per pick38cpaid+39.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xf1e3…6863backed Yes45c135.15$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.784233.3%14 W · 28 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-26%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes44c133.07$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.512,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f20…7163backed Yes44c132.95$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.4535325.5%90 W · 263 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No68c123$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.435,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a1f…4877backed Yes41c111.43$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.3280130.8%247 W · 554 L+1.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No54c102.92$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.2212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a72…a2abbacked No61c102$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.227443.2%32 W · 42 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.11,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No60c100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed Yes47c99.4$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.442148%202 W · 219 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No46c98$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.089,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No52c97.58$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.742,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes44c86.53$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.33,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed Yes45c86.52$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.8194552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe396…dce1backed No60c82.21$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.1323666.1%156 W · 80 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes44c80$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.83,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes43c73$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.614,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No50c73$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.522,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No55c72.53$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.897,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes45c69.96$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.445,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd93e…7434backed No43c65.53$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1813337.6%50 W · 83 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No57c60$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.54,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb8f…ac04backed No62c59.68$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-39.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd46e…11f4backed Yes55c59.51$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.733953.8%21 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes47c57.35$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.1554335%190 W · 353 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked No47c56.97$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.857948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No54c55.1$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes58c54.63$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.036,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x70c4…1008backed Yes54c54$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.8433350.2%167 W · 166 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec3d…0a55backed Yes49c51.02$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.0214434%49 W · 95 L-0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes25c50.34$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.881,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43f2…e722backed Yes57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.52245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes51c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.581848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes44c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2870148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x989e…aa30backed No47c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.514745.6%67 W · 80 L-7.5wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes44c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2812544.8%56 W · 69 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x98ad…5f89backed No46c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233655.6%20 W · 16 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+15.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x108a…8159backed Yes30c49.92$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.0758732.9%193 W · 394 L+34.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No44c49.81$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes59c49.28$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.051,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No52c48.8$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.421,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed No47c47.51$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2675546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xccf0…5951backed No47c44.53$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.961040%4 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-26.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes45c44.02$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.3652446.2%242 W · 282 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes45c44$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.246148.8%225 W · 236 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6cf…66c3backed No41c41.93$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.129341.9%39 W · 54 L-0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No54c41.35$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.473,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No51c41.08$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.991,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x156b…5808backed Yes45c40$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2240535.6%144 W · 261 L-0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa61c…4dd6backed No49c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.620341.9%85 W · 118 L+12.1wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+16.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5157…fdbcbacked No32c39.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.853353.1%283 W · 250 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa20b…390bbacked Yes44c39.75$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.264143.9%18 W · 23 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked No51c39.34$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.981,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a55…d76abacked No61c38.9$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.732770.4%19 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes59c38.81$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.8915051.3%77 W · 73 L+12.7wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+5.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe37a…844dbacked No79c38.25$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2212876.6%98 W · 30 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc07…fcb8backed No33c37.74$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe01…87d3backed Yes44c37.18$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.8230332.3%98 W · 205 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No43c36.5$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.843563.9%278 W · 157 L+13.6wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes40c36.32$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.7942547.5%202 W · 223 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f61…840abacked Yes31c36.25$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.9237570.7%265 W · 110 L+62.7wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+32.8%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No46c34.81$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.912,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes62c34.7$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.141,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x179e…8146backed Yes33c33.61$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.61650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+31.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes60c32$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.82,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52dc…33c9backed Yes62c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.476936.3%279 W · 490 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9387…d659backed Yes47c28.38$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.0427130.6%83 W · 188 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x868b…f600backed Yes53c28.33$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.333158.1%18 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x347b…c9bcbacked No70c28.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6520173.1%147 W · 54 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick74cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfb9…9c56backed Yes44c27.84$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.596157.4%35 W · 26 L+9.3wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+42.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x914e…8355backed No54c27.78$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1516859.5%100 W · 68 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2af3…bcb4backed No58c27.42$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.884658.7%27 W · 19 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7db…959bbacked Yes44c27.27$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.271,01825.5%260 W · 758 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4606…7f19backed No57c26.91$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3411664.7%75 W · 41 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed Yes43c26.91$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.3471649.4%354 W · 362 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No62c26$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2264859.1%383 W · 265 L-21.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No70c24.77$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.451,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacac…50fbbacked No44c24.48$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6928360.4%171 W · 112 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No47c23.92$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.241,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86cb…0a90backed Yes55c22.25$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.012347.8%11 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+49.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.