Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 38°C on June 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89c58d6d1672c5c3184b7fd33f5404ef2ba45f206fd2168dff56d52636c278d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,029
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,154
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,029 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 43c | 1,760$758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,001.59 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 59c | 771.73$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.35 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 55c | 756$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.84 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 43c | 570.87$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.09 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 47c | 456.85$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.06 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…0359backed No | 55c | 360.12$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.07 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 12c | 248.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 14c | 245$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.41 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 44c | 234.47$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.77 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 50c | 213.5$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.05 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 48c | 208.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.22 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 55c | 193.41$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.38 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 57c | 185.97$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.58 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 37c | 181.26$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.06 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked Yes | 39c | 172.99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.95 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 166.68$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.26 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 23c | 159.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 42c | 154.83$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.99 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 66c | 149.53$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.05 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 45c | 137.98$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.09 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b3…b220backed Yes | 46c | 117.04$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.8 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 76c | 105.17$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.14 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 38c | 103.19$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.98 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 40c | 102.66$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.41 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 29c | 93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 59c | 91.07$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.73 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 55c | 90.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.91 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 66c | 90$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x355d…1052backed No | 55c | 88.85$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.87 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2184…d271backed No | 55c | 88.7$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.79 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 48c | 88.38$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.96 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 59c | 76$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.84 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 57c | 73.68$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 57c | 73.6$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 33c | 70$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 69.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.29 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…f88bbacked Yes | 66c | 65.22$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd086…7bc1backed Yes | 48c | 64.03$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 52c | 62.37$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 48c | 59.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.19 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 67c | 57.69$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.42 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 57c | 55.03$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 44c | 53.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.07 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 47c | 53.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.18 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 40c | 51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 42c | 48.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 32c | 48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f37…1952backed No | 56c | 47.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 23c | 45.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9b…0cc4backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 53c | 44.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 50c | 42.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb826…dc01backed Yes | 40c | 41.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…6c1ebacked No | 60c | 41.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 106 | 71.7%76 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 44c | 40.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 41c | 40.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5215…6060backed No | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 32c | 39.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4c…4117backed No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 55c | 35.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 42c | 35.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 42c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 44c | 34.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 57c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 44c | 32.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 43c | 30.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 69c | 30.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 35c | 29.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2b…74acbacked Yes | 68c | 29.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 44c | 29.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 43c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20c0…22b4backed Yes | 45c | 26.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed Yes | 38c | 26.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 59c | 24.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47fc…c32abacked Yes | 44c | 24.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 56c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 51c | 21.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa20b…390bbacked No | 55c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 58c | 20.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 55c | 20.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 60c | 16.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 38°C on June 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 34°C or below on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 35°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 36°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 37°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 39°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 40°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 41°C on June 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.