Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 39°C on June 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab11b9f6c611e5339b11ec1a979e06411c200290e5e36a557a94aa1b4f8152c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,104
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,290
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,104 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 28c | 299.21$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.66 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 14c | 260.4$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 153 | 28.1%43 W · 110 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 234$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.32 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 199.81$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.1 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…a41ebacked Yes | 26c | 188.1$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.25 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 72c | 159.98$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 66c | 159.47$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.47 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No | 58c | 159.33$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.92 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 43c | 150$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.86 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 59c | 147.65$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.88 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 27c | 136.61$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.88 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 31c | 129.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.24 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 42c | 129.08$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.42 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 40c | 128.19$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.66 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 39c | 128.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 70c | 124$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 73c | 123.26$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.7 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 120.43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 27c | 118.56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c56…14ccbacked Yes | 33c | 107$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.31 | 68 | 30.9%21 W · 47 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 26c | 97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 87.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 26c | 86.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 28c | 86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 64c | 84.31$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.12 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 45c | 83.94$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.89 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 38c | 83.87$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 27c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 26c | 78.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 56c | 75$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 72c | 71.94$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 71c | 63.11$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 38c | 59.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 68c | 59.55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 26c | 57.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 66c | 56.33$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 34c | 54.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 27c | 54.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b3…b220backed Yes | 42c | 54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 61c | 49.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 44c | 48.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 63c | 46.45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 62c | 44.24$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffc…e6ddbacked No | 67c | 43.27$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 37c | 40.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b65…e6bfbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 67c | 39.81$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 35.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 56c | 35.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 71c | 35.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 72c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 75c | 34.77$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed No | 58c | 34.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…6c1ebacked No | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 106 | 71.7%76 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 39c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 72c | 27.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 73c | 25.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 76c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 71c | 23.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 61c | 19.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 76c | 19.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 60c | 16.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 74c | 16.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68ae…9df0backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 39°C on June 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 34°C or below on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 35°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 36°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 37°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 38°C on June 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 40°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 41°C on June 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.