Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89f068c5dc75b6bd302e0209440915cef6ea8e617ba16d46b3f59af7189deb63
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,616
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,237
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,616 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x86b1…c094backed No | 73c | 648.82$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.77 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 27c | 457.77$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.33 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 10c | 368.72$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.8 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 16c | 316$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.66 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 10c | 291.23$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.42 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 48c | 253.24$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.28 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 18c | 247.06$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.59 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 39c | 199.95$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.07 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 60c | 199.82$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.23 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 13c | 197.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.87 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 28c | 191.84$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.42 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 66c | 180.51$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.51 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 16c | 179.35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.15 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 24c | 177.95$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.39 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 14c | 172.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.85 | 144 | 34%49 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f89…5619backed Yes | 13c | 171.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.68 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 67c | 165.62$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.85 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 30c | 162.78$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.08 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 65c | 147.06$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.06 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 19c | 133.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.65 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed Yes | 76c | 131.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 67c | 127.74$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.06 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 41c | 125.85$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.81 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 20c | 124.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 58c | 120.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.14 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 34c | 94.67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.66 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 15c | 92.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.31 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbd…65a3backed Yes | 16c | 87.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.98 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 41c | 85.11$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.25 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 27c | 82.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.47 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 78.79$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.46 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 77c | 77.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x43d1…a942backed No | 79c | 76.92$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.89 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 75cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 74$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.44 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…5961backed Yes | 49c | 69.87$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…8b13backed Yes | 40c | 67.77$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.76 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…85f2backed No | 79c | 63.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.18 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.2 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f70…133ebacked No | 79c | 57$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.87 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d6…eb5cbacked Yes | 24c | 53.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.59 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55be…fb40backed Yes | 19c | 52.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.51 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 23c | 52.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.27 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 78c | 51.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccf…6139backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7da…5b7bbacked No | 71c | 42.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed Yes | 40c | 32.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 66c | 28.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 75c | 25.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1d…7c87backed No | 64c | 24.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 77c | 23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…feb9backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 72c | 19.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C or higher on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.