Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8aa60f95b29c18316b13e5e45f6f7e50f1fa9b610c9f48f265dacabee6950593
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,192
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,393
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,192 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 52c | 1,303$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.34 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 34c | 602.78$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.38 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd3…b441backed Yes | 19c | 538.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 68c | 502.75$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.86 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed No | 53c | 302.53$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.25 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 13c | 288.82$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.68 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 262.52$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.66 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 41c | 244.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.86 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 50c | 240.13$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.61 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 51c | 181.41$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.76 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 30c | 171.24$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 10c | 166.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea00…1fafbacked No | 79c | 145.82$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.76 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed No | 66c | 143.57$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.57 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 44c | 139.25$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.36 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…07a0backed No | 75c | 136.9$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.25 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked No | 47c | 128.22$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.53 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 15c | 125.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 64c | 123.59$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 30c | 116.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.89 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 40c | 115.46$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 33c | 113.2$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.13 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 45c | 110.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 36c | 110$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 19c | 110$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1b…e8d0backed No | 63c | 108.25$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.12 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 49c | 108.17$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.54 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 22c | 107.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed No | 51c | 98.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.09 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 73c | 86.53$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked No | 75c | 85.01$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked No | 59c | 83.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.85 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 48c | 78$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.88 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 74c | 76.8$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 35c | 74.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 50c | 74$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…8a8bbacked No | 45c | 71.84$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.31 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 38c | 71.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 44c | 69.9$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.33 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 39c | 67.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x736e…e8c2backed Yes | 59c | 63.37$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 63.11$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…8b13backed No | 65c | 61.75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…3b13backed Yes | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 70c | 58.97$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…d1f8backed Yes | 65c | 58$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.64 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.33per pick | 55cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 35c | 58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.64 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…2aa0backed Yes | 69c | 57.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b36…0d4bbacked Yes | 69c | 57.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked Yes | 30c | 57.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…1c86backed No | 33c | 54.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.54 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 46c | 53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.44 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf237…f6a5backed Yes | 36c | 52.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f70…133ebacked No | 66c | 52$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.53 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 33c | 51.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 51.36$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 61c | 50.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…5961backed Yes | 63c | 49.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 47c | 49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.88 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9149…f2dabacked No | 52c | 46.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 28 | 85.7%24 W · 4 L | +6.5wins | +0.23per pick | 62cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xae5f…bc30backed No | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d6…eb5cbacked No | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 29c | 45.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 29c | 45.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5f…1a13backed No | 70c | 43.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 50c | 43.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 48c | 41.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 48c | 41.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 40.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 64c | 39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b60…6272backed Yes | 59c | 38.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed No | 72c | 37.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 33c | 36.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 43c | 36.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…5d00backed No | 51c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked No | 33c | 34.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.97 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa228…99c6backed No | 33c | 34.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.97 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 43c | 32.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5938…7788backed No | 78c | 30.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x165f…d7c0backed Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked No | 53c | 29.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 58c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 70c | 26.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3b…0a43backed No | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbabc…f582backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 42c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed Yes | 53c | 22.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…b4d7backed No | 72c | 20.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 103 | 60.2%62 W · 41 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 20.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43d1…a942backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 75cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 79c | 19.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97c5…018bbacked Yes | 73c | 18.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 71c | 17.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C or higher on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.