TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 9?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,192
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,393

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,192 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x86b1…c094backed Yes52c1,303$674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674.3427328.6%78 W · 195 L-10.4wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-34.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6868…5198backed No34c602.78$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.381,40127.3%383 W · 1,018 L+69.5wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9dd3…b441backed Yes19c538.05$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001612.5%2 W · 14 L-3.1wins-0.19per pick32cpaid-66.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No68c502.75$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.864,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x42e5…c9a7backed No53c302.53$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.2541033.7%138 W · 272 L+20.9wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+19.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes13c288.82$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.688,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No53c262.52$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.6612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x331d…8846backed No41c244.86$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.8628244%124 W · 158 L+38.6wins+0.14per pick30cpaid+29.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xe8a1…1d37backed No50c240.13$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.6132041.9%134 W · 186 L+10.0wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes51c181.41$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.766,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f20…7163backed Yes30c171.24$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5135325.5%90 W · 263 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes10c166.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.86,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xea00…1fafbacked No79c145.82$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.762850%14 W · 14 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa595…cdf1backed No66c143.57$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.5715561.9%96 W · 59 L+0.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c70…34c4backed No44c139.25$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.3616847.6%80 W · 88 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f7a…07a0backed No75c136.9$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.259066.7%60 W · 30 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x658b…84bfbacked No47c128.22$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.5320445.1%92 W · 112 L+14.8wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+6.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes15c125.06$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.342,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dc5…d6b7backed No64c123.59$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.9327461.7%169 W · 105 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a83…497dbacked Yes30c116.16$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8934935.2%123 W · 226 L+1.7wins0.00per pick35cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes40c115.46$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.519427.3%53 W · 141 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed No33c113.2$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.1366543.6%290 W · 375 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes45c110.13$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5029536.9%109 W · 186 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62d3…e694backed Yes36c110$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.116135.4%57 W · 104 L-12.0wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes19c110$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1254735.5%194 W · 353 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a1b…e8d0backed No63c108.25$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.121656.3%9 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes49c108.17$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.542,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e42…4938backed Yes22c107.59$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7838830.2%117 W · 271 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f51…8b09backed No51c98.08$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.0914638.4%56 W · 90 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+37.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc92…27c9backed No73c86.53$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.0363255.7%352 W · 280 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e40…f89cbacked No75c85.01$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.1724569.8%171 W · 74 L+30.9wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+27.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xd746…2c6fbacked No59c83.52$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.8514746.9%69 W · 78 L+7.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0ecc…c745backed No48c78$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.8817947.5%85 W · 94 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x189e…89d9backed No74c76.8$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.9729345.1%132 W · 161 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes35c74.74$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.211,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No50c74$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.255,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd456…8a8bbacked No45c71.84$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.314542.2%19 W · 26 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-31.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes38c71.19$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x2429…02d9backed No44c69.9$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.3317747.5%84 W · 93 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x164c…3e39backed Yes39c67.48$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.581,03451.3%530 W · 504 L+69.5wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x736e…e8c2backed Yes59c63.37$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.451637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-18.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No71c63.11$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.169,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x22b8…8b13backed No65c61.75$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.755538.2%21 W · 34 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e8d…3b13backed Yes52c60$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.388146.9%38 W · 43 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No70c58.97$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.842,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40e9…d1f8backed Yes65c58$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.64922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.9wins-0.33per pick55cpaid-61.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbd71…1281backed No35c58$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.6453951.9%280 W · 259 L+54.4wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1820…2aa0backed Yes69c57.93$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407335.6%26 W · 47 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b36…0d4bbacked Yes69c57.9$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.955044%22 W · 28 L-4.9wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-29.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe229…ea0fbacked Yes30c57.32$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9827247.8%130 W · 142 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x38c7…1c86backed No33c54.54$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.5411844.1%52 W · 66 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No46c53$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.444,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf237…f6a5backed Yes36c52.23$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.963076.7%23 W · 7 L+4.3wins+0.14per pick62cpaid+24%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9f70…133ebacked No66c52$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.534161%25 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes33c51.74$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8215940.3%64 W · 95 L+0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No69c51.36$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.855,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85d2…7479backed Yes61c50.98$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.153258.6%312 W · 220 L+45.1wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+23.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xaa5c…a240backed Yes39c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6519552.8%103 W · 92 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb664…abbdbacked Yes32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0544646.2%206 W · 240 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa81…5961backed Yes63c49.33$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.97361.6%45 W · 28 L+8.2wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+13.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc3e4…f053backed No47c49$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.8818046.1%83 W · 97 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9149…f2dabacked No52c46.78$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.362885.7%24 W · 4 L+6.5wins+0.23per pick62cpaid+41.8%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xae5f…bc30backed No33c45.45$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.459339.8%37 W · 56 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf9d6…eb5cbacked No33c45.45$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.457949.4%39 W · 40 L+6.7wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+13.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed Yes29c45.3$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.913,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes29c45.22$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.114,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a5f…1a13backed No70c43.07$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.076240.3%25 W · 37 L-7.2wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-28.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed Yes50c43.03$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3198160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes48c41.37$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2013746%63 W · 74 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No48c41.26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.324,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes26c40.94$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.627,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed No64c39$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.255954.7%306 W · 253 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b60…6272backed Yes59c38.92$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-34.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xea21…f753backed No72c37.7$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.4223668.2%161 W · 75 L+18.8wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x35fc…ac54backed No33c36.36$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.3624751.8%128 W · 119 L+24.7wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No43c36.35$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.791,28256.7%727 W · 555 L-28.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe44…5d00backed No51c35$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.2110345.6%47 W · 56 L-8.3wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-23.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcaf5…41abbacked No33c34.28$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.9747239.8%188 W · 284 L+31.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+35.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa228…99c6backed No33c34.28$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.971376.9%10 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.21per pick56cpaid+83.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2349…1646backed No43c32.19$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4448261.8%298 W · 184 L+43.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+12.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No73c32$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.644,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5938…7788backed No78c30.02$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.753262.5%20 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No71c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.582,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x165f…d7c0backed Yes54c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.082733.3%9 W · 18 L-3.1wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-34.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2f9e…c96bbacked No53c29.43$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.841331%128 W · 285 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No58c27$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.353,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb226…4163backed No70c26.16$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.8713672.1%98 W · 38 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick69cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d3b…0a43backed No65c25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.81450%7 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbabc…f582backed No71c25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.155971.2%42 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32f0…c659backed No42c24$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.9223547.7%112 W · 123 L+0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x047b…83b1backed Yes53c22.61$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9913452.2%70 W · 64 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc92…b4d7backed No72c20.98$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.9810360.2%62 W · 41 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No54c20.09$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.319,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No76c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.81,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x43d1…a942backed No71c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.8862.5%5 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick75cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b0a…65abbacked No79c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.2633876.6%259 W · 79 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick78cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes79c19.04$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1517649.4%87 W · 89 L-9.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x97c5…018bbacked Yes73c18.82$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.664665.2%30 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick65cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa51…6199backed No71c17.02$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.9562275.2%468 W · 154 L+15.5wins+0.02per pick73cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No70c17$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.083,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.