Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0009eab09b17c6e05e1dd3b620352ff4eed3e432f5b6a98ab24a5bbb67ea4bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,216
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,771
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,216 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 26c | 885.95$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.05 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 524.49$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.17 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 73c | 521.49$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.03 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 7c | 462.82$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 398.2$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.66 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd3…b441backed Yes | 27c | 374.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4b…0256backed Yes | 29c | 292.96$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.97 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 288.47$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.86 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 72c | 248.06$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.85 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 19c | 230.92$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.79 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 13c | 198.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes | 30c | 187.75$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.79 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 74c | 182.91$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.33 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 25c | 152$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.65 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 28c | 149.17$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.09 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 20c | 147.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 70c | 143.59$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 71c | 140.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.88 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 27c | 140$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e3…07bcbacked No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 99 | 76.8%76 W · 23 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 28c | 126.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 114.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 111.87$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.86 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 29c | 100.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 16c | 94.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 88.14$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.32 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 28c | 85.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 25c | 83.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 25c | 79.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 72c | 76.08$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 20c | 75.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 35c | 75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 74$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 28c | 72.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 68.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed No | 70c | 68.6$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1b…e8d0backed No | 65c | 62.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa39c…1d84backed Yes | 31c | 61.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.24per pick | 33cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 31c | 60.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 31c | 59.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc3…03f8backed Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf237…f6a5backed Yes | 37c | 54.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 70c | 53.36$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 27c | 52.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cab…8de4backed Yes | 27c | 50.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…dd31backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…db12backed Yes | 36c | 48.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f70…133ebacked No | 72c | 46.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…794ebacked Yes | 27c | 46.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 28c | 44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 33c | 43.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef0…6392backed Yes | 26c | 42.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fba…bd5abacked Yes | 32c | 39.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 79c | 38.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 71c | 38.07$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbabc…f582backed No | 70c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 75c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 71c | 22.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 71c | 19.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 75c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 70c | 17.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 71c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 74c | 16.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fba…006dbacked No | 72c | 14.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C or higher on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.