MLB · resolved market
Giants vs. Cubs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89f3bb16293068707d882c98a2684647044341591e3b4c2e173323d9793d52eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Giantsof Giants, Cubs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $125,698
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $120,870
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $125,698 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb6e3…a24bbacked Giants | 42c | 39,227$16,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,751.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5fb…84b5backed Cubs | 51c | 32,483$16,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,477.28 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbfc…0382backed Cubs | 58c | 31,880$18,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,490.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Giants | 54c | 30,523$16,335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,187.98 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…af0abacked Cubs | 34c | 18,926$6,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,470.46 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Giants | 64c | 10,433$6,668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,764.74 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04cc…6213backed Cubs | 58c | 7,347$4,261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,261.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Cubs | 44c | 5,031$2,208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,207.61 | 959 | 30%288 W · 671 L | -24.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Giants | 41c | 3,873$1,601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,272.04 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Giants | 57c | 3,808$2,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,623.23 | 9,862 | 46.4%4,579 W · 5,283 L | +40.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Giants | 67c | 2,280$1,533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.1 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Giants | 45c | 1,653$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$907.37 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Giants | 45c | 1,376$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$756.78 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…73e6backed Cubs | 10c | 1,261$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.57 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Cubs | 59c | 1,093$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.87 | 1,359 | 50.8%690 W · 669 L | +12.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Cubs | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Giants | 66c | 994.72$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.48 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4447…a0e7backed Cubs | 58c | 930.1$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.46 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1752…7993backed Giants | 68c | 844.53$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.3 | 132 | 62.9%83 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Cubs | 59c | 745.91$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.95 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Cubs | 59c | 529.99$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.69 | 277 | 51.3%142 W · 135 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…ddfabacked Giants | 40c | 480.29$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.17 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…9c8ebacked Giants | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 394 | 36%142 W · 252 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…e209backed Cubs | 58c | 390.91$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.73 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -5.8wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Giants | 63c | 300$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Cubs | 5c | 299.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 475 | 4.4%21 W · 454 L | -20.9wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Giants | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Giants | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2105…b560backed Giants | 42c | 177.81$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.81 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Cubs | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,180 | 7.2%85 W · 1,095 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Cubs | 32c | 154.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -9.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Cubs | 59c | 143$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.37 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6f…0142backed Giants | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f36…4e9cbacked Giants | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Giants | 53c | 120$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae00…f7b0backed Giants | 50c | 119.61$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.61 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Cubs | 59c | 77.9$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.61 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Cubs | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Giants | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Cubs | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7379…0182backed Giants | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed Cubs | 58c | 48.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Cubs | 50c | 43.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Giants | 43c | 38.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 2,058 | 53.8%1,107 W · 951 L | +33.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed Giants | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 364 | 53%193 W · 171 L | -17.4wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Giants | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd32d…3c32backed Cubs | 59c | 22.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05a4…1e85backed Giants | 58c | 17.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 806 | 80%645 W · 161 L | +173.6wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.