TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 11?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,427
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,153

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,427 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes53c1,212$643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.544,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf381…40c2backed Yes40c595.79$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.849436.2%34 W · 60 L+0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No47c470.48$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.494,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No43c406.82$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.912,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No44c277.39$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.521,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ae6…7485backed No41c210.1$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.716926.1%18 W · 51 L-11.5wins-0.17per pick43cpaid-45.5%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes54c210$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.711731.6%37 W · 80 L-19.1wins-0.16per pick48cpaid-39.5%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x28f5…dbe4backed No46c186.1$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.612045%9 W · 11 L-0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No56c172.4$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.575,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes39c172.34$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.849,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf49…2486backed Yes62c170$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6515545.2%70 W · 85 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No49c168.98$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.459,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb077…74d3backed No60c166.66$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9566944.7%299 W · 370 L+3.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No47c125.15$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.377,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes44c117.22$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.0268335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e0c…8b5ebacked Yes65c112.52$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.8392678.2%724 W · 202 L+51.2wins+0.06per pick73cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5757…9e19backed No69c104.46$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.7845162.1%280 W · 171 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No55c101.84$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.41,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3956543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes42c98.21$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.958,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x82e7…f552backed Yes42c96.52$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.3635441%145 W · 209 L-19.3wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeba1…2b59backed No51c88.84$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+136.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1dce…1ae5backed No57c88.48$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501323.1%3 W · 10 L-4.7wins-0.36per pick60cpaid-59.2%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes61c86$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.521,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No38c85$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.444,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2155…3428backed No43c83.77$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7718845.2%85 W · 103 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b08…ab3ebacked No43c80$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3211650%58 W · 58 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No44c70.78$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed Yes50c65.31$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.6577851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes54c65.12$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.763,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8db6…8679backed No16c62.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102466.7%16 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+100.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x86c1…9615backed No21c60.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133713.5%5 W · 32 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-61.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0941…b254backed No33c60.59$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2011935.3%42 W · 77 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes53c60$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.23,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No38c59.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.13,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4125…868cbacked No40c59.19$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.458240.2%33 W · 49 L-7.1wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-18.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked No38c58.69$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5548743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50d3…bad4backed No36c58.36$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.011741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa970…d60dbacked No39c58.36$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec0a…71dabacked Yes49c56.99$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.1311343.4%49 W · 64 L-6.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd212…5182backed No49c54.55$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5513551.1%69 W · 66 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3904…539bbacked No35c51.06$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.142762.8%268 W · 159 L+16.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+3.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes52c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2451631.6%163 W · 353 L-29.4wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2a79…38bebacked No41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94ce…edf2backed Yes49c49.99$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.55648.2%27 W · 29 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick40cpaid-3.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x29df…aeecbacked No40c49.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2014043.6%61 W · 79 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No41c48.2$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No69c47.7$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8910,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes52c44.43$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.172,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed No34c44.11$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed Yes45c44$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.211,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c70…edf3backed No38c42$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9612539.2%49 W · 76 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No58c41.63$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.983,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No57c40.94$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.164,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed Yes50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e7f…7980backed No59c39.66$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.44551.1%23 W · 22 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-0.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f4a…f61bbacked No35c39.66$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8854547.7%260 W · 285 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked No58c39.5$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9193837.6%353 W · 585 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed Yes73c37.18$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.042,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58e6…9ac7backed No57c35.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9919753.8%106 W · 91 L-12.7wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No57c34.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.575,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4da…cf3bbacked No57c33.89$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.321758.8%10 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick67cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7da…138cbacked No56c33.65$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.931586.7%13 W · 2 L+2.9wins+0.20per pick67cpaid+28.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd7e1…8652backed No56c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.85141.2%21 W · 30 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-20.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes50c29.81$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.962,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a1f…4877backed Yes43c29.67$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.9180130.8%247 W · 554 L+1.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8ce…7b28backed Yes51c29.43$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.421145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-28.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No57c28$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.961,27147.6%605 W · 666 L-25.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked No49c25.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.651,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes76c25.2$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1fcc…701bbacked No40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1043559.8%260 W · 175 L+20.7wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc239…ebe8backed Yes45c24.73$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.61070%7 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick58cpaid+27.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xed13…ac4abacked Yes45c24.73$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.661450%7 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No62c23.86$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.822,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No52c23.08$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ffc…594fbacked No50c21.14$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.571435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-31.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5157…fdbcbacked No57c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.453353.1%283 W · 250 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes79c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.252,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked No51c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.261,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ac0…ace0backed Yes51c19.98$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.787463.5%47 W · 27 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b95…898abacked No58c18.77$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8830168.8%207 W · 94 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5353…293cbacked No62c16.13$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103551.4%18 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-21.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.